President Trump and Kim Jong-un are set to meet in just under 12 hours. Here are some thoughts in advance of that event.
No less an authority than Albert Einstein once defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result.
For more than 30 years, the Western playbook with North Korea has been to trade economic incentives for nuclear ambitions. Those efforts failed catastrophically, resulting in the transfer of billions in Western aid and a North Korean nuclear arsenal with missiles theoretically capable of hitting the United States.
But the source of that failure had less to do with Western intentions than on the catastrophic failure of the North Korean leadership to fulfill their side of the agreements. In retrospect, it is clear that the North Koreans never intended to give up their nuclear program until they had a bomb and a means to deliver it. Nuclear negotiations were simply a tool to buy time and extract concessions, while leaving the core nuclear program intact for final development.
The realization of a nuclear North Korea as a regime that cannot be trusted, forms the basis for the current dilemma facing the United States. If a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable, but the costs of regional war are incomprehensible, what do you do? While diplomats and regional experts have called for renewal of the Six Party talks that petered out under the Obama administration, this is simply a confirmation of the insanity principle that Einstein posited, likely to achieve nothing but disappointment.
In this light, President Trump’s decision to meet with Kim Jong-un seems less impulsive and more rational. A meeting with Kim is really the only action the West has failed to try in order to salvage the Korean situation. Trump is cutting out the middle man and going directly to the decision maker who can actually guarantee outcomes. At the very minimum, this meeting offers the opportunity to determine what is the North Korean bottom line and adjust accordingly.
At the same time, Trump seems to intuitively understand that the framework of carrot and sticks laid out by previous Administrations no longer make sense. In a world before North Korean ICBMs, a diplomatic road map envisioned carefully choreographed gestures, beginning at a low level, building toward truly valuable steps on sanctions, on ending the Korean War, and diplomatic recognition; all to be meted out for good behavior. Meeting a sitting US president would have been at the very top of the pyramid.
But this structure was all designed to keep North Korea from getting a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it.
That ship has sailed.
So, Trump is simply acknowledging reality. Yes, the summit gives Kim the worldwide platform he craves, and the recognition from no less than the President of the United States, with no tangible result in return. But again, short of war, where do we go? Trump has thrown out the old playbook and is writing a new one; place all the incentives on table in return for one, non-negotiable result – the complete and total denuclearization of North Korea.
The bounty the US and its allies can offer in support of this deal are eye-popping. This includes the obvious up to the distasteful. Removing economic sanctions. Signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War. Granting diplomatic relations. A multilateral economic aid package. Private investment. Perhaps even reciprocal conventional force reductions. And yes, some form of assurance that the US will not undermine the Kim regime. Trump has already hinted at much of this.
The reciprocal North Korean requirement is both simple and comprehensive.
The Kims would need to formally renounce its nuclear program and allow the most unprecedented inspection regime in history, which would identify and dispose of all nuclear related infrastructure and technology in North Korea. Based on North Korea’s history, nothing short of this will guarantee results.
In agreeing to this meeting, and placing all the cards on the table, Trump has presented the Kims with a once in a lifetime offer. Will it be enough? Will the Kims voluntarily give up what has taken decades and billions to develop and deploy? Will the paper assurance of a US president be more useful than the deterrence value of an ICBM? Can Kim actually deliver, or does the possession of nukes represent a “Red Line” for his military commanders, which form a block inside his power base? These are formidable questions.
If past is prelude, Kim will want it all; sanctions relief, economic aide, diplomatic relations, and recognition as a nuclear power. That is, after all, what India and Pakistan achieved with their own covert programs.
This, in turn, poses a question for President Trump. Is something short of complete denuclearization acceptable to the US? That decision has profound consequences for our regional allies as well as our general non-proliferation posture, specifically with Iran, not to mention a domestic political audience.
With only hours to go before the summit, I would posit that the course of negotiations and any final settlement will depend on a simple question? “Who wants it more?”
President Trump spent most of his first year in office threatening the North Koreans and significantly ratcheting up military pressure. Regardless of his true feelings, he has created an impression that he is equally fine with peace or war. For a negotiating posture, the Trump administration has positioned itself exactly opposite that of its predecessors who dealt with Iran.
As a result, there is little downside for Trump, politically. In meeting Kim, he can assess for himself whether a deal can be had and under what terms. If instead, Kim throws up barriers and road blocks, or Trump is faded with grunts instead of commitments, the President will have gone the extra mile for peace and left no stone unturned. Failure will be on Kim.
So long as the President focuses on substance over symbolism, and stays true to his stated objectives, there is a real opportunity to advance global security as well as the economic well being of the North Korean people.
No matter where you stand on Trump, all Americans should support this outreach today.
Good luck and game on.