Now we know.
After a full year in office, we can now assess the Trump presidency by its record.
What emerges is not a single narrative, but two; a story of substantive accomplishment, balanced off by the limitations and unique personal characteristics of the President himself. You cannot understand the Trump presidency without recognizing the two, parallel threads, and their bearing on POTUS’ ultimate success or failure.
By any combination of metrics, Trump’s first year has been an undeniable success.
With regard to personnel, the President’s Cabinet picks have proven capable and dedicated, led by the stellar General Mattis at Defense. After a period of early chaos, and mass staff changes, General Kelly has created order and discipline in White House operations, and coordination with the Executive branch.
Candidate Trump promised to put conservative jurists on the bench, and he delivered. In addition to the superbly qualified Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court, Trump has nominated (and the Senate has confirmed) 12 appellate judges with sterling conservative credentials; a record for a first-year president. As mostly young conservatives, these judges will start the process of reigning in “activist” courts around the country, and will be active long after Trump has left office. The Court of Appeals is also the go-to source for new SCOTUS nominees, thus POTUS is “seeding” these courts with a bigger bench of potential Supreme Court candidates.
Candidate Trump promised tax reform and he’s delivered. In December, the President signed the most comprehensive, pro-growth tax reform since 1986, making US corporations competitive internationally and delivering a tax cut to almost every working American. The benefits began flowing almost immediately.
Candidate Trump promised to roll back oppressive regulations that hamper economic growth, and he’s delivered. After the first year, Trump has revoked 22 regulations for each new regulation issued. A record. This included revoking the Obama “Clean Power Plan,” which, if implemented would have been the most expensive regulation in American history, provided the EPA with unprecedented authority over states and businesses, to micromanage their activities.
Candidate Trump promised to crack down on illegal immigration, and he’s delivering. Using existing authority, POTUS has ordered the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security to enforce existing laws, by ending “catch and release” at the border, targeting gangs as well as illegal immigrants who have criminal records. In the current budget impasse, the President favors granting legal status to “Dreamers” in return for funding for a border wall, an end to the “diversity lottery” and chain-migration. The President has also come down decisively on the side of law in his opposition to Sanctuary Cities/states.
Candidate Trump promised to repeal Obamacare, and he’s delivering. The Tax Reform law repeals the hated Individual Mandate, which forced citizens to purchase health insurance or pay a fine. Through Executive Order, the President has used existing authority to promote health care plans that provide more flexible pricing and coverage.
Candidate Trump promised to “put American first” in international agreements, and he’s delivered. Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and is working with Canadian and Mexican governments to modify NAFTA. The President also withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, which though only an “Executive agreement” without any affirmative vote in Congress to provide standing, was already a force reshaping US regulations affecting businesses and individuals.
Purposeful or not, there is a consistent theme in many of Trump’s actions in the first year, that will be paradoxical to his opponents – restraint.
While Trump is only second to Bill Clinton in issuing Executive Orders, Trump’s EOs – unlike the most controversial of the Obama administration – are grounded in existing statute, duly authorized by Congress. The EO limiting immigration from terrorist countries was hugely controversial, but also completely legal, as SCOTUS eventually found. While ending Obama EOs on the Climate Action Plan and DACA were consistent with immediate Trump policy goals, these actions also overturned clearly unconstitutional actions by the Executive branch. These actions, in conjunction with POTUS’ judicial picks, catalyzes a very conservative rebalancing of the existing distortions between the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government, which were intended by the Founders to be co-equal.
Whether they deserve credit or not, presidents are judged by the performance of the economy. In Trump’s first year, the economy has been a formidable success.
The stock market is up 40 percent year over year. Nearly 2 million more people were working in December 2017 than January, as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent, a level not seen in 17 years. Jobless claims have fallen to a 45 year low, while factory production is at a five-year high. With 184,000 manufacturing jobs added in 2017, the Trump record is third behind Presidents’ Kennedy and Carter. Both real hourly wages and median earnings increased in 2017. A Washington Post poll released Sunday shows that 58 percent of Americans have a positive view of the economy, the largest positive rating in 20 years.
But for all of Trump’s success, there is another side to his presidency that overshadows this record of accomplishment and threatens his presidency. This is almost entirely on the President himself.
Trump came to the presidency as the least experienced Chief Executive in American history. During the campaign, and even during his first year, Trump’s lack of familiarity with politics and governing were seen as strong benefits, but over the last 12 months, this lack of experience and context has been a liability.
Almost none of Trump’s vaunted business skills have translated well in government service. Trump’s effort to re-create his corporate structure to govern the nation – by bringing trusted family members into the most senior reaches of his Administration, has been, at best a mixed blessing and a durable distraction.
Mythical “turn around” experts in the private sector are successful because they have applied a set of principles that have a proven track record of success. In contrast, the President came to office as a “turn around” expert, but with no expertise in such an enterprise, as say, Governor Rick Scott of Florida.
POTUS came to office with a set of ideas, but absolutely no grounding or context in how to make those ideas into law. During the campaign, he was contemptuous of the nation’s governing structure, regarding officials as simpletons who could not see obvious solutions that he himself would champion. But as POTUS himself has admitted, governing is a lot harder than it looks. Throughout his first year, Trump didn’t know what he didn’t know, and showed very little interest in finding out, more often than not, frustrated by procedure, precedent and law. It has continued to be a drag on the nation.
President Trump doesn’t have permanent allies, advisors, principles or policies; he only has a permanent interest – Trump. From this proposition comes a cascade of potential risks for the Administration.
Trump lies.
The President lies about big things and small things. He lies in his boasts, he lies about is policies, he lies about easily checked facts. More disturbing, even when an untruth is pointed out, he continues to lie. He’s lied about the crowd at his Inauguration, the relative size of his tax cut, and his treatment as a guest of the Chinese government, just to pick three. Facts checkers from various media outlets have tracked over 2,000 documented cases where Trump has exaggerated or lied out right in one year, an astonishing record that represents nearly 6 lies a day, every day, for the past year.
Trump boosters will say that it doesn’t matter – that it is just “Trump being Trump.”
But it does matter; greatly.
Trump is no longer a private citizen with a public presence. He is President of the United States. Citizens and nations depend on the words that the person holding the Office uses as both a matter of substance and context. Yet Trump has shown reckless disregard for this consequential truth. There is nothing cute, cheeky or funny about this, which has become the last refuge of talk radio when Trump says something so at odds with established facts.
Worse, over the past year the barrage of lies have led to “Trump Lie Norming.” We collectively discount the President’s words, knowing that even when the facts are favorable and readily available, he will utter an untruth. That is an injustice to the Republic for which the President should be held accountable. We should never sink so low as a body politic that we simply expect the President of the United States to lie.
Additionally, while Trump holds the title and power of the presidency, he appears to have yet to fully occupy the office intellectually. Even after a year, particularly in his Twitter feed, Trump frames himself as an outsider commenting on the activities government as if he isn’t actually in charge.
This lack of “ownership” of his presidency can be seen as Trump has continued a one-man jihad against the media, undistinguished from his attacks during the campaign. The President seems to have no conception that running for office as a private citizen and holding the highest constitutional office in the land are two, very distinctive roles, requiring different responses. He is no longer speaking for himself; like it or not, he speaks for the nation.
Of course the media is largely pro-Democrat and anti-Republican. That has been a fact of life since at least Nixon. Trump has chosen to fight back harder than any of his GOP predecessors, which in and of itself is not a bad thing.
The problem is that Trump is not simply calling out bad or inaccurate coverage, he is delegitimizing coverage that is critical of his presidency. And he is doing it as the President. That is a crucial difference. In the process, he is taking a broad brush to journalists who take their jobs seriously, conduct themselves professionally, and uncover information essential to the public’s understanding of the Administration’s actions.
A year after Trump’s inaugural, trust in the media is at an all time low. While Trump boosters see this as a long overdue acknowledgement of media bias, it is nothing to cheer. In the absence of an aggressive press, the only truth is that which is put out by the government. That is in no one’s interest.
The same is true with the President’s treatment of the Federal bureaucracy.
Unnerving, despite a year on the job, Trump still appears to believe that his most trustworthy source of information comes from “Fox & Friends,” As with the media, Trump attacks dedicated professionals in the career service with deeply personal statements regarding federal agencies, which undermine the credibility of essential organizations, including the DoJ, FBI and intelligence community. Worse, this isn’t a general campaign to root out systemic corruption in the “swamp,” but an orchestrated campaign to attack departments based on a single criteria – how the President perceives these organs are treating him.
It deeply damaging to the credibility of the Federal government that is not easily repaired.
In addition, the two most prominent characteristics of Trump as president have been his volatility and impulsiveness. Neither has served him well. There is no better example of this than the President’s firing of FBI Director James Comey. Had Trump held his wrath, it is probable that the FBI investigation would have already wrapped up without there ever having been a Special Counsel. Democrats could no longer bludgeon Trump with charges of collusion and a corrupted election process.
However, in pursuing immediate gratification tactically, POTUS opened himself and his Administration up to serious risk strategically.
Trump associates, including family members, are in potential legal jeopardy. Comey’s dismissal itself has become the focus of a potential Obstruction of Justice charge against the President. Whatever Robert Mueller ultimately decides to do, the Special Counsel’s investigation has badly distracted Trump and his Administration from pressing governing priorities. This was eminently avoidable.
This determination to traffic in the avoidable lays at the heart of Trump’s failing.
At its heart, the relentless and shameless self-aggrandizing, and myopic focus on self-interest – even self-dealing – represents an enormous risk for the Trump administration in the next three years. It is what dominates public perception of the President and presidency, and explains why, with a historic number of Americans approving of the economy, Trump’s job approval numbers remain mired in the upper 30s.
It is worth noting that for all the tumult in 2017, the President has been blessed by a first year largely devoid of a true crisis. There were no new wars overseas, and Trump inherited an economy that was already moving in a positive direction.
Crisis however, is inevitable. Which Administration shows up to face that threat,the one of measured accomplishment, or the one recognized as combustible, provocative, embodied by the President himself, will be the key to long-term success or failure.