As our hallowed election process continues its death spiral deep into a fetid swamp of disqualification, let us take a moment to consider how we got here. Mrs. Clinton’s rise is predictable, if sad. But looking at Republicans, how did the party of Lincoln and Reagan end up with Donald Trump?
Pundits are awash in theories, with the liberal intelligentsia settling on a classically progressive narrative, that fits neatly into their world view. Specifically, that Republicans, who had labored mightily to keep their hordes of bigots, racists and misogynists out of the limelight, were finally pulled apart by stoking these very sentiments without actually acting on them. Throw in an eight-year economic malaise and you have the catalyst for a party that was blown apart by its own grass-roots, demanding action.
In other words, the chickens have come home to roost for the GOP.
But as most things progressive, that theory is too convenient by half. The real culprit for the deeply unsettled nature of this year’s election in general, and the rise of Donald Trump in particular, has been the governance of President Obama.
POTUS has been the 15% president.
Instead of focusing on and resolving America’s most pressing structural and systemic issues, at at time of genuine national crisis, when decisive action was possible on the debt crisis, out of control entitlement spending, economic competitiveness, preparing next generation workers, fostering prosperity, the 44th president has been content to look to what I call the 15% solution, where interest groups, donors and loyal voters are rewarded, generally at the expense of a broad cross-section of Americans.
Consider Obama’s priorities.
Obamacare turned American healthcare upside down, increasing insurance premiums, deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses, while limiting coverage and doctor availability. Exchanges are collapsing across the country as insurers pull out of markets as a result of actuarial realities. All of this was done in an attempt to extend coverage to 15% of Americans who did not have coverage in 2008. For all the damage and distortion the legislation has caused for the 85% of Americans who were happy with their healthcare in 2009, 9% of Americans are still not insured.
Remember the Stimulus? The $900 billion “shot in the arm” to revive the American economy back in 2009? Significant components of the legislation, particularly dealing with grants and aid to education and healthcare were a sop to America’s unions (11% of the workforce) with a majority of the funds going to pubic sector unions.
The Stimulus and follow-on legislation provided billions for the government-sponsored grants and loans for renewable energy, which turned out to be ill-advised with the resulting catastrophic waste in taxpayer funds, with over $2 billion supporting failed companies. For all this focus and attention, clean energy supports 327,000 jobs; a fraction of 1% of the total US work force. For all the investment, clean energy provides just over 10% of US power. In contrast, the energy industry’s growth leader is in fracking, which not only provides good paying jobs, but national energy security. The Administration remains hostile to this private-sector led innovation, trying to crush it with regulation.
And consider illegal immigration. President Obama has openly defied the separation of powers by issuing an Executive Order that would legalize millions of illegals. The president and Mrs. Clinton both support, as a top campaign promise, providing citizenship to illegal immigrants in the US. Official estimates claim that there are 11 million illegals in the US. 3% of the total US population.
Or what about gun violence? President Obama has made gun control a central feature of his presidency, proposing a variety of new restrictions, and generally demonizing gun owners. Mrs. Clinton promises to build on the Obama record and allow lawsuits against gun manufacturers if she is elected.
Excluding suicide, 13,286 Americans were killed with a firearm last year. That is less than 1/2 of 1% of all Americans who died last year. By way of context, 2.3 million Americans were killed or injured in car crashes. 5 million Americans have Alzheimer’s and 700,00 with the disease will die in 2016. 577,000 Americans die of cancer each year. Where is the sense of priority in what affects the broad majority of Americans?
And what about the Obama economy? The worst, post-recession recovery in the last 100 years.
If you are in the Top 1% you’re doing just fine. Since 2009, their wealth has grown by 32%. For the lower 90% of Americans? Growth has been near zero.
It gets worse for average Americans.
- The percentage of Americans who are on food stamps has increased by 63% since 2007 and remains at record highs.
- 94 million Americans are not in the workforce, and increase of 13 million since 2008.
- Since 2008 the labor force has grown by 19 million, but the number of those employed has only grown by 11 million. The labor force participation rate has declined by 2.9% during Obama’s presidency.
- The U6 unemployment rate, the fullest measure of unemployment, only dropped below 10% in September 2015. The first time since 2008.
- Minorities have been disproportionately affected by the economic malaise. While minorities are 36% of the total US population, minorities make up 80% of welfare beneficiaries. Average Americans have lost ground.
Yet, with all this bad economic news, what is the Obama administration’s latest policy proposal? To raise the number of refugees who can enter the US. Almost 400,000 refugees have moved to the US since Obama became president. POTUS has recommended that up to 100,000 refugees be admitted each year, a 25% increase. While the US has admitted more refugees in past decades, those cohorts came at a time of economic prosperity, not the hardship that so many go through today.
Amid collapsing incomes, the Administration has brought LGBT issues to the head of the line, with support for the SCOTUS case that legalized same-sex marriage, and new support for transgendered students to use the bathroom of their choice, enforced by the Departments of Education and Justice. Public estimates of the LGBT population in the US vary up to 3.4%.
With this context, it is not hard to believe that if you are rich, a union boss, a green-energy crony capitalist, gay, illegal, uninsured or a refugee, you take precedence over the vast majority of Americans, who Bill Clinton once described as those who work hard and play by the rules.
Since 2008, the banks are back on their feet, thanks to a government bailout, even as they went on to crush average Americans in foreclosures where there was no relief. Companies shed workers and became more efficient. Executive compensation is again in record territory, while CEOs continue to dodge responsibility (see Wells Fargo).
The stock market is at record highs, not thanks to a humming economy, but rather the bubble gum and baling wire policies of the Fed that force money into the market for the lack of return anywhere else.. Money is cheap and easy for the rich, but try to go get a business loan for your small company. Or a mortgage as a first time home owner.
The national debt is doubled, yet infrastructure is collapsing while audits detail government programs that have fraud larger than the capitalization of many of America’s best known companies. Annual deficits are projected to get worse for as far as the eye can see, while critical entitlement programs border on short-term insolvency. Yet, the government cannot even pass a budget, let alone tackle serious catalysts for growth such as tax reform and regulatory reform. A record $2 trillion of American assets remain overseas, funds that could be used for investment at home, for wont of a reasonable tax rate.
Washington is a cesspool of incompetence, yet no one is held accountable.
This, ultimately, is why Americans are angry, and why Trump supporters are so animated. President Obama, elected with such promise, ultimately settled on the formula of the 15% solution, which not only ignored the most pressing structural challenges, by prioritizing less pressing issues, it ended up setting citizens against each other, causing the friction and stress that is now integrated into our social discourse, with corrosive effects.
There is no excusing Donald Trump the candidate. He defies rational explanation. But there is no mystery in his rise.
Barack Obama owns this one, lock, stock and barrel.