Any hope that Iowa was a political aberration, and that New Hampshire would restore order to the nominating contests of both parties were blown out of the water yesterday. The overwhelming and decisive win by Donald Trump confirms that 2016 will be the most uncertain primary season in recent memory.
Donald Trump: the question of whether Trump’s unconventional campaign was real, and could turn rallies into votes, is now settled. In New Hampshire, Trump won both men and women, in every age demo, income range and education level. He won among moderates and conservatives, and took a majority of self-identified Republican votes and the largest plurality of Independents. It was as complete a victory in NH as has been seen in recent contests. Regardless of whether he enjoys broader support in the Republican Party, Trump is a genuine force to be reckoned with, and deserves the respect that this win entails.
Ted Cruz: the Senator from Texas was not expected to do well in New Hampshire, given its more moderate electorate, but Cruz exceeded expectations and came in 3rd. While Cruz did not significantly expand his support beyond evangelicals and the most conservative voters, this above average finish, coupled with the win in Iowa, puts the Cruz campaign in a very formidable position to compete in South Carolina and the southern states that vote on March 1st, and in a very good position to begin accumulating delegates.
Marco Rubio: no candidate came out of Iowa with greater expectations and opportunity, and no candidate crashed as hard in New Hampshire as Rubio. Where the FL Senator decisively won the late deciders in Iowa, it was John Kasich who prevailed among those voters in NH. Rubio barely managed 13 percent.. It is hard not to conclude that Rubio’s catastrophic debate performance, where he melted under Chris Christie’s brutal questioning, robbed Rubio not only of support, but of rationale. The debate catalyzed a narrative about Rubio as an empty suit, skilled at sound bites but otherwise devoid of substance or accomplishment.
It was devastating, and was central to Rubio’s slide to 5th place. Whether he can regain his confidence and following will be the major test of SC.
John Kasich: if there was an Establishment Strikes Back” narrative in NH, it came with Kasich, who rose from obscurity to win second place. Having bet everything on NH, and virtually camped out in the state, Kasich was rewarded handsomely by NH voters who appreciate retail campaigning. Less commented upon is the obvious dichotomy with a Trump/Kasich finish, where the consummate outsider wins the gold, while the silver goes to a candidate who never held a private sector job and served the dreaded “Establishment” for 18 years in Congress before becoming governor.
As more than a participation trophy, it’s hard to see how the NH finish helps the logic of the Kasich campaign. He does not have a national network, nor does he have a vast fundraising base to fuel a national campaign. Kasich is a difficult fit for SC and the March 1st southern primaries. He’s moderate, joined Obamacare and took glee in making defense cuts when he was Budget Chair back in the 90s. This will all come back to haunt him.
Jeb Bush: Michael Meyers has nothing on Jeb Bush. The Republican candidate who has been repeatedly written off and declared dead rose into contention in New Hampshire. While the Bush team had hoped for a more commanding position, ultimately coming in a less robust 4th, the closeness of Bush and 3rd place Cruz buys Jeb a legitimate ticket to South Carolina on February 20th, where the Bush campaign has already organized,; a place where the Bush family had deep connections.
Chris Christie: Christie, who bet his campaign on New Hampshire, further bet his hopes for a convincing win on the brutal take down of Marco Rubio in the NH debate. Though Christie effectively demolished Rubio, there was no corresponding bump for himself, and, to add insult to injury, he finished behind the Florida Senator in the finally tally. There is no logical path forward for Christie, which Christie seemed to acknowledge by returning to New Jersey to ponder his options.
The State of the Race: Trump and Cruz come out of New Hampshire with unquestioned momentum, and the gift of friendly territory in the primaries to ahead. The battle between Trump and Cruz, that was so scathing in Iowa will likely be reignited in South Carolina and command center stage as both candidates compete for what was the “Gingrich vote” from 2012.
Beyond anointing Trump, the voters in NH effectively provided another gift to the billionaire by creating a thoroughly chaotic “Establishment” lane competition between Rubio, Bush and Kasich. For Trump, the worst second place result in NH would have been a win for Rubio or Bush. Both have made inroads in SC, and have natural constituencies there and beyond. Second place in NH would have been a big launching pad for either Bush or Rubio. By launching Kasich instead, who has no organization, money or natural constituency in SC, NH has delayed the GOP’s natural coalescing around a “Governing Conservative” to compete against Trump and Cruz.
Two facts should offer some comfort for those who support “Governing Conservatives.” First, if you add up the support of Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Christie, and Fiorina in New Hampshire, it equals nearly 50 percent. Had there been one candidate instead of five, the story coming out of NH would have been a “Governing Conservative” beating Trump by 14 points. This is a natural coalition that can form, once candidates begin to leave the race. The question is about timing, which is currently muddled.
Second, the “Governing Conservatives” are not out of time – yet. Genuine, Winner-Take-All primaries do not begin until after March 15th. Until then, the states that vote, SC, AL, AK, GA TN, TX and VA have either proportional caucuses or primaries that award delegates to candidates who win in certain state districts. It effectively slows the speed with which Donald Trump or Cruz could create an insurmountable lead in delegates before the “Governing Conservative” lane is resolved.
South Carolina: except for 2012 (when Gingrich beat Romney) SC has ultimately picked every GOP nominee since 1980. It is politics at a tribal level, practiced in hand-to-hand fashion, which has effectively ended candidacies. At this point, it appears that SC will be two races – one between Cruz and Trump for primacy, and one between Bush, Rubio and Kasich as the “Governing Conservative. Ben Carson will be back in play in SC, with its large, socially conservative voter base, which could impact the calculations of Cruz or Trump, though Carson’s longer-term prospects remain dim. A Rubio advisor has said that SC will be a “bloodbath” and there is every reason to believe that will be true.
In a most extraordinary political year, the path forward for the GOP has never been less clear. Voters will have to guide the way.