All right. You are where you are.
The debate was bad, and the Rubio exchange made it momentarily catastrophic.
It wasn’t a Roger Mudd-Teddy Kennedy moment, but it was a clear inflection point in the campaign, particularly for pundits who have been looking for a reason to give you up for dead. There’s blood in the water. There is going to be fall out and it’s going to be painful. Donor defections and withdrawn endorsements can make pundit predictions a self-fulfilling reality.
So what are you prepared to do?
You: It starts with you, Jeb.
You are hands down the best prepared candidate to walk into the Oval Office on January 20, 2017. Your eight-year record of conservative governance in Florida speaks for itself. That alone makes you a contender. You have laid out serious, achievable plans and policies to correct our national trajectory.
Ironically, the Bush family name, which appears to be such a political ball and chain, is what makes you so valuable to the nation. You have had a combined 12-year, front row seat to politics and policy as it is practiced at the very highest levels of our nation. On Day #1 you will know the wire diagram. You know the players. You will know the pitfalls and the hard choices. You do not require “on the job” training.
But most important, more than anyone in the Republican race, you understand the pressure of the presidency. You have seen it up close; the petty politics, the partisanship, the personal attacks, the issues of war and peace. What man on that stage last week had the entire Democratic party – including Al Gore and Bill Clinton – come out and campaign against their reelection to anything?
You did, and you kicked their asses. It wouldn’t hurt to mention that beneath that dignified exterior, you know how to throw elbows and play for keeps because you have already done it.
But preparation doesn’t translate into ambition. The legendary Bush competitiveness means nothing if have reservations or second thoughts. You have got to want to do this with all your soul for you – for the unique talents and experience that you alone will bring to the Office that will help America recover from the Obama interregnum. Anything short of that, and the safer play is just to leave now.
If you are in, all the way, here is what you need to do:
Know Who Your Friends Are: campaigns attract opportunists like locusts – staff, consultants and donors. You started out as the front-runner, and so the corner-cutters jumped on board quick to grab a title, a fat campaign job or to brag about intimate campaign confabs.
Inevitability breeds easy loyalty.
After the last debate, the sorting will have begun. You will know who joined up for their own advancement and those who came because of you. Find the loyalists from the thinned herd and rebuild from there.
Campaign Messaging: you need to start over, from the top down. It is not that the messaging is wrong, per se. It is that the messages are out of sync. Your campaign is trying to capture the natural optimism of America with a conservative governance plan, but in delivery, it doesn’t connect to the genuine sense of despair that many Americans are feeling right now. You need sharper angles.
Dump the “Right to Rise” Campaign Theme: nice try, but it is out of step with our times. The message implies an existing, satisfactory foundation that we can collectively grow from. It could easily have been the message for your brother’s campaign in 2000, when there was peace and prosperity, but a longing for something more.
Today, people are hurting. Everyone – except for the most wealthy, are just trying to get by. This is not a time to dream about personal growth and attaining dreams, but rather a time of constant calculation of what is necessary to survive. Your campaign needs to connect to that urgency.
Optimism For It’s Own Sake is Denial: yes, at their heart, Americans are an optimistic people. They are can-do improvisers who are generous to a fault and tolerant in a way that most of the rest of the world has yet to understand. That is the claw – the raw material – that the nation has to work with. But it is not to deny our inherent optimism – or trash talk our nation – to call out how American feel today. To summon our better angels from past years, is not to keep talking about that past glory as an elixir by itself, but to connect our inherent optimism to a concrete plan that you provide. Americans need to know that you truly understand the costs of Obama governance on America.
The “Experienced-Change” Paradigm: the media and your opponents are never going to let you off the hook for being a Bush, so turn it into a positive.
“Would you have an accountant do your surgery? Would you want a real estate agent to fix your car, or ask your paper boy to balance your checkbook? The person walking into the Oval Office in 2017 will have to create clear priorities and make very touch choices. Promises are easy, but it’s delivering that counts. I’ve made promises as governor and I’ve delivered, eight years in a row. And as a son and brother to American presidents, I have seen, first hand, the pressure and responsibility of leading a nation. I want to bring that experience and insight to the White House so we can begin to fix what is broken on Day #1. We have no time for on the job training.”
Sound Bites: you certainly know the facts. The Obama record and your own plan. But when speaking, particularly to a debate audience, it sounds like a laundry list. Like some of your opponents, you need to connect the facts to an emotion. That is more easily done by word-summary. Say “Obamacare” and everyone knows exactly what that means in terms of the multitude of problems and shortcomings with the program.
Obama’s foreign policy? “Puny-lateralism.”
Obama’s economic record? “Obamanomics“
When you talk about working class and middle class Americans, talk about “restoring dignity,” be it respect for their faith, gun rights or the promise of a better paying job. Democrats laud working class Americans in the abstract but mock them as individuals. Dignity and respect convey one of the core components of what has been robbed from Americans during the Obama years. Don’t be reluctant to point out the difference.
Your Opponents: there is a silver lining to every cloud. And if this campaign inflection point were inevitable, now is not a bad time for it to happen.
If you have been knocked down a few pegs, Rubio has been elevated to fill the void, and he’s going to have to stand the scrutiny that he has successfully avoided thus far. He may have unexpectedly peaked too early. There are a lot of uncomfortable questions here. There is no doubt that Rubio is a talented politician and speaker. His background is compelling and he’s a very disciplined candidate with great instincts on his feet.
But like everyone, he’s got a record and a history. He’s been a man in a rush from the beginning, barely sitting in a new job before he starts looking for a new one. The “Establishment” doesn’t want to keep Marco down – it is whether primary voters want to promote someone who has shown no capacity to do the jobs he was elected to do. Rubio’s signature achievement was the immigration bill that he walked away from. That doesn’t show principle, or a propensity to handle pressure.
The media will catch on, and Rubio will be found wanting.
Cruz? He’s got a lane that you probably can’t win over in the primaries. But he’s got a thin resume and his biggest contribution to Washington has been to become a platform for aggrieved conservatives while he cynically fundraises off of Washington dysfunction where he is a willing co-conspirator. If you want someone who can get something done in Washington, someone who can work across the aisle, Cruz is not your guy.
Trump? The way to get at Trump without alienating his voters is the “death-hug” statement. “I respect Donald Trump’s business acumen. He’s shown one path to American success. But tough choices in the Oval Office are bigger than picking a real estate location or whether to fire Gary Busey.”
Carson? Leave him alone. He is like the tape from “Mission Impossible.”
Strategy: you have Murphy and the Super PAC in your corner. You have smart people in Iowa and New Hampshire. Even with the expectation of much reduced donations, you have already built infrastructure. Prioritize it with the traditional Bush focus. Stay below the radar and exceed low expectations in Iowa, and finish in the top three in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Rubio does not have a natural constituency in any of these three places. Cruz will do well in Iowa and SC. Actual voting will show if Trump or Carson are for real. As the also-rans begin to drop out, there will be opportunity to rebuild the fund-raising.
Conclusion: 2016 will be one of the most consequential elections in American history. If the Democrats win the White House again, Obamaism will be consolidated and the permanent decline of America will become a reality. But it is not enough for Republicans just to win. They need to win with radically achievable reform agenda, and candidate who knows how to enact it. Someone who has been tempered and vetted. Someone who is proud and courageous.
There is only one person that can do that.
Jeb Bush.