If the intelligence community were a venture-funded start-up, its equity investors would have long ago throw in the towel regarding its core failure to achieve its primary mission; to see over the horizon to the threats that are coming.
The CIA completely missed the collapse of communism. Not an insignificant event in post-WWII history. Then there was the failure to connect the dots on 9-11.
Last year, the intelligence community missed big again, failing to predict or fathom the movement now known as the “Arab Spring.” The result of that failure was a halting, reactive and ad hoc approach by the US government to a pan-Arab grassroots revolution, where American officials were always scrambling to catch up.
The most memorable line in America’s most consequential action as the Arab Spring unfolded, was to say that the US would “lead from behind” in US support for NATO’s intervention in Libya.
But today there is a opportunity for the United States to finally get out ahead on the Arab Spring. To stand with oppressed Arabs that are being systematically murdered by their own tyrannical government. To reaffirm America’s commitment to personal liberty and democracy. And to decisively weaken the country that poses the greatest single threat to the Middle East – Iran.
The time has come for America to aggressively support the resistance forces in Syria.
The Syrian uprising, now over a year old, has evolved into a de facto civil war between the ruling Alawite sect (Shia) of Bashir Assad against the majority Sunni population. Official estimates by a host of international organizations state that between 3-7,000 civilians have been killed thus far.
While the Arab League and Western Nations were quick to intervene in Libya – whose oil powered EU economies and whose production or lack thereof moved global energy markets – the conflict in Syria posed marginal if any threat to the world economy at large, and thus efforts to mediate the dispute were left in the hands of Arab states and the UN.
But the durable opposition of the Assad regime to anything short of an affirmation of its complete control of Syria made a mockery of Arab League efforts, including the placement of League “monitors” in Syria, who had to be withdrawn given the growing violence.
Diplomatic efforts since then has led the Arab League to the UN where yesterday the Security Council took up a resolution which called for an end the violence against Syrian civilians, a return of troops to their bases, guaranteed freedom of peaceful protest by Syrian citizens and a political transition to a democratic and pluralistic political system, under the auspices of the Arab League.
Using their vetoes as permanent members of the Security Council, China and Russia killed the resolution. In the process their short-sighted decisions handed the US a rare opportunity the consolidate the support of disparate countries in the Arab world around core US values, focused in a manner that will directly support US strategic interests in the Middle East.
Consider that the Security Council vote was 13-2. That placed the US on the side of its traditional European allies – France, Britain and Germany, but also in league with a unique confederation of countries serving on the Security Council, that are not always friendly to US policy – India, Morocco, South Africa and, of all countries, Pakistan.
It also positioned the US as an unlikely champion of the Arab League, a regional political organization of 21 (not including Syria) Arab countries that has rarely been aligned with US foreign policy objectives, and whose members are a sought after prize in a spirited competition between Russia, China and the US for power and influence.
This is critical, since China and Russia have effectively galvanized a vast political coalition that has determined that in support of freedom and self determination, the Syrian regime must go. This no only supports US values, but also US strategic interests in the Middle East.
Simply stated, Assad’s Syria is the linchpin to Iranian influence in the Middle East.
In a democratic, Sunni-led Syria, Iran immediately loses its logistical base for support for Hezbollah in Lebanon. That, in turn, will have a significant impact on the politics and governance in Lebanon proper, where Hezbollah has played a military role in confronting Israel, and an increasing political role in Beirut. It will change the balance of power in Lebanon, shifting influence to Lebanese Sunnis from Shiites.
The loss of a Syrian ally will also complicate Iranian support for Hamas on the Gaza Strip. Hamas has depended on the Iran-Syria-Lebanon axis to access support and supplies.
It is not an understatement then to say that the collapse of the Assad regime would be the biggest foreign poicy reversal for the Iranians since the 1979 revolution. Over 30 years of effort to expand Shiite influence to the Mediterranean and beyond will have been undone in a single stroke.
Such an outcome would occur against the backdrop of increasingly effective Western sanctions that are playing havoc with the Iranian economy and causing headaches for its leaders.
To take advantage of this strategic opportunity, the US should immediately take several steps.
First, in close coordination with the Arab League and like minded states, the US should impose any and all unilateral sanctions against Syria until the terms of the failed UN resolution are met.
Second, the US should seriously engage Turkey regarding Syria.
As a Sunni Muslim nation, that was once the center of Islamic civilization, Turkey is a natural competitor to Shiite Iran for influence in the region. Indeed, as a modern democracy – both a member of NATO and with the 15th largest economy in the world – Turkey is an model for rising Arab nations, including its neighbor, Syria.
Turkey has both the means and motive to work with the US and others to covertly support Syrian opposition forces with weapons and logistical support to both protect civilians and place additional pressure on the Assad regime.
Finally, as the opposition to Assad takes form, the US and the Arab League should consider providing political recognition as a tool to further undermine Assad.
Despite all the advantages of a post-Assad Syria in geo-political chess, the action is not without risk. Israel’s fundamental security paradigm has been overturned by the Arab Spring and the rise of Islamic powers across North Africa, and specifically the chilling of relations with Egypt. While Mubarak and Assad were autocrats and tyrants internally, they represented stability and the “devil you know” for Israeli leadership.
The collapse of Assad would represent one more uncertainty for Israeli leadership on a pivotal and sensitive border region.
Yet, like Mubarak a year ago, the dynamic of events on the ground prevent a return to the status quo ante. After a year of missed opportunities, the Chinese and Russians have handed the US a strategic advantage virtually by accident.
The US should step up from the back of the room, grab the opportunity, and lead.