Last December, in a moment of whimsy, I decided to write a predictions piece for 2018, taking a tentantive stab at forecasting some of this year’s major events. Here, on the last day of the year, I look back to see how well I did.
Below is the original post in full, with my commentary in italics at the bottom of each prediction. I grade myself on a 0-5 scale, zero being completely wrong, five being completely correct.
“Special Counsel Investigation: Robert Mueller will conclude that the President did not directly “collude” with the Russians to affect the outcome of the 2016 election.
The exoneration of Trump will be clouded by determinations that Trump’s management of his campaign was nothing short of a disaster, without any clear lines of responsibility/accountability, which significantly enhanced the chances for illicit activity by questionable Trump campaign hires who free-lanced in counter-productive ways.
In addition, other Trump associates, including close associates, will find themselves indicted on felony charges that have nothing to do with the “collusion” investigation. The President himself could be labeled as a “co-conspirator” for business activities conducted through Russia-linked intermediaries in the years before he ran for office. The key question will be whether the Special Counsel will pursue “obstruction of justice” charges against the President, without evidence of collusion.”
Close, but no cigar.
The investigation is still ongoing, though there are signs that Mueller will wrap up in 90 days time.
Despite media heavy breathing, there is still no public evidence or Trump collusion or conspiracy. Still, the White House is bracing for a report that will be very critical of the Trump organization and Trump campaign with evidence of widespread free-lancing, breathtaking ethical lapses, and unseemly self-dealing.
I did hit the target with regard to Trump associates. At least four – Manafort, Gates, Flynn, and Papadopoulos were convicted of, or pleaded guilty to felony charges that have absolutely nothing to do with collusion or conspiracy with Russia. Carter Page was never charged, and the most famous “rat,” Michael Cohen did not plead guilty to anything Russia related.
It remains unclear whether Mueller will pursue obstruction of justice charges against POTUS, without any current evidence of an underlying crime. We will still have to wait for the report.
Rating -4-
“Armed Conflict: before 2019, the United States will have been party to a significant military clash, which could lead to war, with one of the following: North Korea, China, Russia, Iran.”
Didn’t happen, gratefully so.
Rating -0-
“The Economy: there will be a major correction (>10%) in the stock market, caused in part by the lack of coordination between the Fed’s plan to sell off assets and raise interest rates (to head off inflation) and the impact of the tax reform law.”
As we wait for the morning bell, the market has corrected 13.5% from the high of 26,872.00, reached on October 3rd. To be less than 10%, the DOW would have to gain 1,000 points, which given recent history is not impossible, but unlikely.
Clearly President Trump is blaming the Fed and interest rate hikes for the volatility. Other factors, a possibly slowing world economy, tariff wars, and mounting debt, are more likely culprits. Tax reform has not factored into the correction, per se, beyond the sense that the biggest impact of tax reform have been felt, and are now over.
Rating -4-
“Judiciary: an open seat on SCOTUS, and Trump’s nomination of a mainstream conservative to fill the vacancy, will set off the most vicious political battle of the Trump presidency.”
Kavanaugh. Enough said.
Rating -5-
“Global Leadership: Theresa May of the UK, Angela Merkel of Germany, and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will no longer be in charge of their respective governments by the end of 2018. Major protests will mar Vladimir Putin’s re-election to another term as Russia’s president.”
Almost but not quite. I picked the right leaders, but the timing was off.
All three are still in office, but under very different circumstances. May holds on by a thread, vexed by Brexit. Merkel is done, having resigned her party, but not government post. She is a spent force on the way out the door. Netanyahu just dissolved the Knesset for new elections next April.
There were protests against Putin, but they did not gain international significance, or stop Putin from winning easily.
Rating -2-
“Issues: a focus on infrastructure and “Dreamer” led immigration reform will enrage conservatives, while efforts to modify entitlements will run aground with moderates and the media. The most important issue of 2018 will ultimately be Obamacare, with lawmakers struggling to agree on reforms to keep insurance affordable with the end of the Individual Mandate in 2019.”
Got this one fundamentally wrong. We never got to a place in our discourse where we were actually talking deals. There was almost no governing in 2018, just a whole lot of posturing.
That said, the Democrats’ effective use of healthcare/Obamacare was the driving force in Democrat House gains in the midterms. The lack of a tangible answer hurt the GOP majority.
Rating -1-
“Midterms: control of the House of Representatives will come down to +/- 5 seats. Republicans will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate, enhancing the majority, but not enough to protect it in 2020.”
Right up until the last week, it seemed possible that GOP losses could be held below 29 seats, giving Democrats the slimmest of majorities, or a narrow GOP majority. Alas Democrats took 40 seats to end up with a safe 17 seat buffer. No credit here.
However, with a net gain of 3 seats in the Senate, I hit the middle of my prediction.
Rating -3-
“Natural Disasters: a major earthquake (Richter Scale 8 or above) will hit the United States.”
Nope.
The Alaska earthquake from late November was a 7 on the Richter Scale. Since a magnitude 8 is 10x bigger than a 7, the scale of the quake is no small matter.
Rating -1-
“Sports: The New York Yankees will be World Series champions in the autumn. Tom Brady will not be getting another Super Bowl ring in February.”
I dreamed of a Yankees-Cubs World Series, but the detestable Boston Red Sox played spoiler again. But to my enduring delight, the Philadelphia Eagles kept Tom Brady from getting another ring at the Super Bowl.
Rating -3-
“Technology: Apple stock will be lower, year over year, due to ebbing demand and loss of creative prowess.”
Apple started the year at $172 a share, and shot up 32% to a high of $233, only to come tumbling back down. Today, before the open, Apple is at 158, 6% lower than the opening on January 3rd.
Rating -5-
So, overall? I get an average 2.8 rating. Pretty much down the middle. Was it just luck? Or was there genuine insight?
You decide.
There will be no predictions piece for 2019, in part because I believe that it is likely to be the most unconventional year in recent memory, with a plot that even “House of Cards” couldn’t conjure.
Happy New Year to all of you. Buckle up. 2019 is going to be a heck of a ride…