If Tom Hanks was a team manager for non-Trump Republicans, he would almost certainly call out, “There’s no crying in politics!” It is time for life-long GOP supporters to stand up, brush off the dust and get back to work.
How the GOP got here – here being the place where Donald Trump has won 47 percent of the delegates allotted so far with an average of 37 percent of the vote – is less important right now than what happens next.
Can Trump be stopped?
The answer is yes.
The path to stopping the NY billionaire is very narrow, and wholly dependent on a number of factors that are outside of anyone’s ability to control. If those elements go in favor of the “Not Trump” forces, it will still require substantial financial resources, tireless foot soldiers, creativity, diligence, coordination and tenacity, brought together rapidly and deployed effectively in the shortest period of time.
But it can be done. This is the plan:
No Deals/Conditional Endorsements: ambition in pursuit of power is integrity’s greatest enemy. To prevent Trump from becoming the nominee before the convention, there needs to be a public commitment from Ted Cruz and John Kasich that they would refuse to join with Trump until after a first ballot at the Cleveland convention. There is no real opposition strategy without this prerequisite.
By way of example, if Ted Cruz ended his campaign today and pledged his delegates to Trump, the Donald would only need 116 of the remaining 1005 outstanding delegates to secure a first ballot win. Any possible endorsement before a first ballot that gets Trump past 1,237 has to be a non-starter.
In addition, if other elected officials feel compelled to endorse Trump, they should do so in a manner that helps Trump become a better general election candidate, by forcing the Trump campaign to limit its liability. For instance, any endorsement should be contingent upon Trump releasing his tax returns, qualifying who his advisors are, articulating actual policies instead of platitudes or audience-pleasing red-meat. This is nothing more than what every other candidate has done. Unqualified endorsements serve no useful purpose but to further undermine the party in the general election.
2) Primary and Caucus Guerilla Warfare: Trump has won the great pitched political battles of the 2016 campaign. With fewer votes, he has amassed a larger delegate haul, given the deeply splintered opposition. A huge and decisive swing to either Cruz or Kasich at this point in the process is simply not in the cards given Trump’s core 30-40 percent support. There isn’t enough time.
While there may not be enough days for a “Not Trump” to win the nomination outright on the 1st ballot, there is time for these campaigns slowly deny Trump a majority. Each candidate must look carefully at the upcoming contests and adapt their campaigns to individual primary rules with the goals of winning as may individual delegates as possible.
There are state-wide Winner-Take-All (WTA) contests seeded throughout the rest of the primary contests, where the top vote getter wins the delegates, even if they don’t win over 50 percent. AZ, DE, NE, MT, NJ, NM, SD. But the lion’s share of delegates come in states with more complicated rules that allocate delegates by congressional district, with sub rules regarding how those individual districts are awarded based on performance. A concerted effort here could yield results.
Consider Utah on March 22nd. If one candidate wins more than 50 percent, that candidate gets all 40 delegates. But if there is no one over 50 percent, then anyone with 15 percent qualifies for proportional delegates based on a percentage of the vote.
Or consider NY, where Trump would naturally be considered a shoo-in for the states 95 delegates, but upon review, the rules make it more complicated. In NY, only 14 delegates are allocated state-wide. To win them outright, a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote. Otherwise, anyone winning 20 percent of the vote gets a share of delegates. The remaining 81 delegates are awarded by congressional district. If one candidate wins 50 percent in the district, the receive the three delegates. But if two candidates win more than 20 percent in a district, the delegates are split; two to the higher percentage, one to the lower. WI, CO, NY, CT, MD, PA, RI, IN, WVA, WA, CA all have this type of contest. Those states represent 618 of the 1,005 delegates outstanding.
Cruz and Kasich have to stop trying to win states broadly and start trying to win CDs. Super PACs or outside groups supporting “Not Trump” candidates need rapid, persuasive and constant targeting of these voters through social media and paid media targeting those elements of Trump the candidate or his positions that are an anathema to those particular voters. Obama was the master of this technique. Cruz is the best of this cycle. Other outside groups can join in a strategic “air war” to point out the shortcomings of a Trump candidacy. The double punch can move the ball in favor of “Not Trump” candidates. The goal is to slow Trump’s march toward 1,237 delegates as much as possible, tie him up, and force an error that puts him on the defensive. The fact that Trump is declining to debate is a sign that the Donald knows he is vulnerable in a debate with only two competitors.
It’s hard for candidates that are not in the lead, or with delegate totals that are significantly short of a majority to convince voters to cast their lot with them. But it must be tried, laying out the case of Trump’s unsuitability for the presidency. Whatever you are angry at, I can assure you, Trump is not the solution.
Unstated but of supreme importance, Cruz and Kasich need to stay out of each other’s way. Cruz’s appeal remains narrow and he turns a large cohort of Republicans off. Kasich’s emphasis on bipartisan and governing makes him suspicious to conservatives. But there is ample territory for these two in the states to come. The April 26th primaries in CT, DE, MD, PA and RI are particularly ripe for Kasich if he has the resources, focus and discipline. Also, Ohio’s neighbor, Indiana should be ripe for Kasich on May 3rd. Cruz will do well in UT, WI, CO NE, MT, SD.
3) Actual Delegate Selection: it would probably shock most Americans to know that the selection of actual delegates to go to the convention happens separately from the primary or caucuses. These delegates are selected through district and state party conventions controlled by each state party. Delegates include state party officials and dignitaries, and this is vitally important.
There were shenanigans. In 2012, nearly 80% of Iowa’s delegates to the Tampa convention voted for Ron Paul instead of Mitt Romney, though Romney had won (well, Santorum “won” but that’s another story). Paul’s local organizers were superb in outflanking others in the district conventions and outmaneuvered the Romney campaign that simply wasn’t paying attention. In the aftermath of 2012, the RNC strengthened rules to prevent this kind of activity in the future.
So, Trumpkins don’t have to worry that a delegate pledged will fail to vote for Trump on the first ballot. What is crucial, is that larger percentages of delegates become unbound and free to vote their wishes if no one gets 1237 on the first ballot.
If Cruz/Kasich play their primary strategy correctly, and refuse a deal with Trump before Cleveland, leaving no one with the majority on the first ballot, knowing who those delegates are, their backgrounds, their views, will be crucial to any 2nd or 3rd ballot effort to finding an alternate candidate, broadly acceptable to all, who can win in November.
The GOP is at a defining moment right now.
A large cohort have sought to call the nomination based on opinion polls before the first vote was cast. Now, with Trump as the clear leader in delegates, there will certainly be a “rally-around-the-frontrunner” effort, rooted in pragmatism but potentially self-defeating.
Trump may be leading but he has not won. Indeed, for a candidate who has based his campaign on “winning” Trump real-life definition of winning is very elastic. The Donald seems all to ready to give himself a participation trophy for having the most delegates, even if he falls short of a majority for the nomination.
And context matters.
For voters yet to cast ballots, consider this. In 2012, Mitt Romney was in a 3-way race with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Yet, by mid-March, Romney had carried the popular vote in 21 states and won 57 percent of allocated delegates. Trump’s comparable numbers are 18 and 47 percent.
Romney swept the remaining primaries by significant margins. Thus far, Trump hasn’t won 50 percent in a single state.
Trump’s favorables in the GOP are at 22 percent. 61 percent of voters have a negative view of Trump as positive. Trump currently enjoys the distinction of having the highest unfavorable rate of any major party front-runner since 1992, when Gallup started tracking favorability.
In truth, Trump is the weakest front-runner for the Republican nomination since Gerald Ford in 1976 (the last time the GOP nearly had a contested convention).
With all the record turnout in the GOP side of the primary calendar, it will likely surprise some that of the 20.35 million votes cast thus far in the Republican primaries, Trump has won only 7.5 million. While voters who had supported other GOP candidates will certainly gravitate to Trump, keep in mind that 129 million people turned out on Election Day 2012. 61 million voted for Romney. In context, Trump’s “YUUGE” support appears more brittle and alarming, particularly with 44 percent of non-Trump GOP primary voters who cast ballots last Tuesday who said they would not cast a ballot for him in November.
In sum, there is still time for GOP voters to make a difference. The game is up, only if you cede the point argued by pundits that continuing the fight is pointless. It is not pointless. In a previous cycle, where the choice was between two authentic Republicans, the urgency would be more limited and the pragmatic consensus approach more practical.
Trump is different.
The fate of the Republican Party, indeed the fate of the Republic is on the line.
Trump-Clinton is not the choice between the lesser of two evils.
It is simply the choice between two evils.
America deserves better and GOP voters still have time to deliver.