After all the hype, the first debate of the 2016 Republican campaign is in the rearview mirror. How did the process and candidates do?
Breaking the Debate into Two Tiers: kudos to FOX here. The use of polling averages to place candidates in the Varsity or JV debate forums was practical, and for the most part, telling. And, bonus, the pre-eminence of social media guarantees that even the B-List candidates had a central forum to get their message out.
The Winner at 5pm: if the early debate was a wildcard playoff to win a ticket to the top-tier debate, Carly Fiorina was that winner hands down. The former HP CEO was poised, informed and focused, showing the rest of the candidates how to take on Donald Trump without directly attacking him. Fiorina also previewed how she would take on Hillary Clinton, adding “courage” to the list of qualities on display.
FOX News Debate Management: the first ten minutes of the debate were a combustible mix of the surreal and the absurd. FOX crossed a serious journalistic line by treating the debate like a Super Bowl pre-game show, going to a panel of experts to “pre-spin” what was going to happen on stage. That was followed by truly cringe-worthy banter between the three hosts, Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace and Brett Baier, which was forced and awkward at best, and only fueled the sense of carnival at what should have been a serious event.
The Questions: tough and occasionally incendiary. Megyn Kelly, in particular, arrived loaded to stir controversy. Donald Trump was on the receiving end of the toughest and most biased questions. In retrospect, the arc of questioning seemed to have an unstated secondary motivation – tough love; if you can’t answer provocative questions about your background, record and public statements in front of a FOX audience, how will you cut it when the debates move to mainstream media outlets? As much as anything, moderator questions seemed designed to expose weakness and winnow down the field to a more manageable number of serious candidates.
The Winners at 9pm: in a field of ten, it was unlikely that any one candidate would “win” the debate. Each campaign came to the contest with different goals for success, and with the exception perhaps of Donald Trump, everyone hit their marks. Still, some did better than others.
10) Donald Trump: the moderators hit him hard, and provocatively, but front-runners should expect nothing less. There was a great deal of pre-debate discussion of which Trump would show up on stage; the bombastic Trump from the campaign trail, or a more measured and considered – presidential – Trump.
It appears that The Donald only has one speed.
The no-nonsense, plain-speaking, assertive, no-apologies optimism that has driven Trump to the top of the polls was clearly on display. But the pointed questioning exposed deep faults in Trump’s Republican bone fides.
Starting off the evening by refusing to rule out a 3rd party run because such a threat was “leverage,” was just the beginning. Worse, was a growing incoherence in his answers as the debate went on, with Trump essentially stating that only someone who bought and paid for politicians could reform a corrupt political culture, and that only someone who had been bankrupt could solve the national debt problem. There were a lot of platitudes, but not a lot of substance.
If you were a devout Trump-eter before, nothing on stage last night changed your opinion. If you actually care about the issues, Trump provided significant reason for pause.
9) Ben Carson: Carson proved himself witty, warm and personable, but he was clearly out of his depth on the national stage. His effort to distinguish his record from the rest of the pack only raised more doubts about his qualifications. While the miracles that neurosurgeons perform every day are a blessing, does that skill qualify you to be president?
8) Rand Paul: combative, abrasive and shrill, Paul did himself no favors last night. While Libertarians must have been delighted by the Senator’s full-throated defense of the 4th amendment and sparring with Chris Christie, it appeared as if Paul had little interest in expanding his coalition beyond his natural base. His persona was angry and exasperated. It was a shame in the sense that Paul’s positions on expanding outreach to minorities and prison reform would have resonated with center-right voters and is an important message for the GOP writ whole.
7) Ted Cruz: Cruz has a great life story and imposing academic credentials. But as the name-calling saboteur of almost any bipartisan legislation in the US Senate, Cruz’s path to fame makes him temperamentally suspect as a potential president. He did nothing to dampen that problem last night, congratulating himself for purity over action.
In addition, perhaps superficially, Cruz’s voice is squarely off-putting the longer you listen to it, and his debate style – as Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post noted, was, “…speaking with excessive deliberation as if he was saying something of profound importance,” when no such utterance was in the cards.
6) Huckabee: the former Arkansas governor has always been a smooth talker, with a delivery that can make even the incendiary appear reasonable. That was on full display last night. But Huckabee is a closet protectionist economically, has an unrealistic plan to reform entitlements and mostly plays to his social conservative base with a new proposal to extend constitutional protections to the unborn.
5) Chris Christie: the NJ governor has been declared political dead, but showed signs of life last night, turning in a performance that should remind supporters who have since migrated elsewhere, why they liked him in the first place. He appeared relaxed, conversational and well-informed. He was combative without being off-putting. Christie was the only candidate on stage who laid out the sobering truth about the pending entitlement crisis, and what needs to be done to prevent it. He played the 9/11 meme too hard, but established his anti-terror bone fides in any event.
4) Scott Walker: a lot of grass-roots expectations ride on Walker, who is seen as a possible cross-over candidate who can unite grass roots, fiscal and social conservatives. Walker’s performance was mostly error free, and he did nothing to hurt himself last evening. But still he failed to do anything to distinguish himself, which is a disappointment given the substantial amount of material he has to work with that would paint clear and bold contrasts with other serious contenders, particularly Jeb Bush. Maybe that is being saved for future debates.
3) Jeb Bush: like Walker, Bush turned in a mostly error-free, if underwhelming performance. Bush-watchers will see an almost familial awkwardness that was present to some extent in both 41 and 43 in Jeb’s presentation. It can be jarring coming from such an experienced public official. The former Florida governor got better as the night progressed.
To his credit, Bush did not temper his support for comprehensive immigration reform that includes a path to legal status, as well as education standards framed by Common Core. Neither is a popular position in the GOP grass-roots. Bush was at his best defending his economic program and his pro-life credentials. He talks a great deal about his heart, but we have yet to see true passion.
2) John Kasich: on paper, Kasich has a sterling resume for this race. 18 years in Congress, serving on consequential committees. A stint in the private sector. And now a second term governor of the pivotal swing state of Ohio, where Kasich won by a landslide in 2014, based on a solid record of accomplishment. Kasich’s problem has always been that his head gets out ahead of his mouth, creating unforced errors when Kasich says whatever happens to comes to mind.
If Bush 43 hadn’t coined “compassionate conservatism” in 2000, it would be a good moniker for Kasich today. He believes in conservative principles and governance as a means to create growth and raise living standards, but he is firm in his commitment that society should also take care of those who are left behind. Kasich’s defense of accepting Obamacare’s Medicaid deal was heartfelt if unconvincing to the grassroots. Like Fiorina earlier in the day, Kasich showed the assembled candidates how to take on Trump without attacking him. Kasich’s answer on gay marriage, should be a staple of Republican replies on the issue in the campaign.
Kasich is new to the race, but last night, that didn’t seem to matter. He appeared to be comfortable in his skin, informed, reasonable and wise. A clear adult in the room. He is credible as a top 3 candidate.
1) Marco Rubio: Rubio was the most talented politician on stage last night. Though he looked like an altar boy compared with the other men on stage, the FL Senator was calm, deliberate, principled and optimistic. He demonstrated great dexterity in turning the tables on issues that go against him, such as age and experience. He refused to rise to the bait to argue with fellow Floridian Jeb Bush. And more than any other candidate on stage, Rubio was adept at seamlessly blending campaign positions with a compelling narrative of the American experience, which connects with voters on an emotional level. Reagan could do it, as could Bill Clinton. So far in this cycle, Rubio has the market corned.
Compelling rhetoric alone does not qualify a first term Senator for the Oval Office, as recent experience has so completely demonstrated, but Rubio gave himself a solid boost last night.
The Take Away: forget about Trump. He is the theater of the absurd, playing to the crowd during the summer doldrums. He’s flashy and controversial, but ultimately an empty vessel; the wizard behind the green curtain, whose tricks and magic – and power – are eventually exposed.
Last night the GOP showed off an impressive roster of compelling candidates with intelligence, depth, compassion, integrity, grit, perseverance and substantial records of accomplishment. If you are not sure, just look at the Republican roster from 2011 for a comparison. This is a true A Team.
If you are on the other side of the aisle, burdened by a fatally flawed front-runner, under criminal investigation, a geriatric socialist runner-up, and a number of unserious pretenders, last night’s GOP debate should make you very nervous.