The midterms are only 12 days away, and all the polling indicates a very tight race for control of the House, and perhaps a modest boost for the GOP in the Senate. But in the Trump era, there is a “X” factor that can render even the best forecasts as little more than hopeful speculation. In the intensity of the political fight, little has been said about what happens the day after, particularly if the election does not work out as planned. Here is one possible scenario.

Enjoy….

THE WASHINGTON POST

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

REPUBLICANS GAIN AS VOTE IS DISPUTED

GOP Retains Control of Congress, Increase Senate Majority as Upsets Dominate

 

WASHINGTON (AP) – In a dramatic shift from pre-election polling, election results from yesterday’s midterm vote point to a decisive shift to the right, as both houses of Congress appear headed to two more years of Republican control.

The most dramatic results occurred in Senate races. In the evening’s biggest upset, three-term Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow fell to challenger John James in a race where Stabenow was thought to have a double-digit lead. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, James leads Stabenow by a razor-thin 50.5-49.5 It is unclear whether Stabenow, who has not conceded, will request a recount.  In another stunning reversal, New Jersey’s, scandal-plagued, two-term Senator, Bob Menendez fell to Republican pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, 51-49.  Menendez conceded the race.

In Florida, Governor Rick Scott prevailed in his bitter race against Senator Bill Nelson, despite consistent polling showing Nelson with a widening lead. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Scott was ahead by just less than one percent, powered by strong turnout in the Panhandle region of Florida recently devastated by Hurricane Michael, where residents strongly approved of Scott’s handling of recovery efforts.

As the evening progressed across time zones, endangered Red State Democrats began falling like dominoes. Joe Donnelly ((N), Claire McCaskill (MO) and Heidi Heitkamp (ND) quickly fell to challengers. John Tester (MT), who had maintained a slight lead throughout the campaign, fell to challenger Matt Rosedale, 52-48.

Senator Ted Cruz easily beat back a challenge from Congressman Robert “Beto” O’Rourke, with 55 percent of the vote. In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn beat former Democratic Governor Phil Berendsen by six points, while Republican Martha McSally bested Krysten Sinema 51-49 to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake.

The one bright spot for Senate Democrats in an otherwise dismal election day was in Nevada, where a surprisingly strong showing by Jacky Rosen has left the race with incumbent Senator Dean Heller in a virtual tie, separated by only a few hundred votes. A recount in that race is likely Also, Democrat Joe Manchin (WVA) bucked the Republican tide in a state that President Trump won by 42 points, beating challenger Patrick Morrisey by seven points.

Delighting in a stronger than expected performance for the GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “Tonight, the American people have spoken loud and clear, providing a strong mandate for Republican leadership in the Senate with a new majority of at least 58, and maybe 59 seats.”

In the House, Republicans beat historic odds to claim a majority with 219 seats, just one more than required for a majority. Democrats have confirmed wins in 204 seats, with 12 races still too close to call. Early GOP wins in vital swing districts on the east coast, set the tone for House races across the country. GOP Congressman David Brat’s narrow win in VA-02 was a harbinger of Republican fortunes during the night.

At 10pm (EDT), President Trump tweeted, “The RED WAVE is rolling WEST!!!”  The President was an active participant via Twitter all evening, congratulating Republicans as results were announced until the wee hours of the morning.

The only good news for Democrats nationally came from the governor’s races where Democrats effectively changed the balance of power in state governments. Democrats flipped 10 states across the country, including GOP held seats in Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Maine, and Illinois. Progressive Democrat Ron Gillum decisively defeated GOP nominee Ron DeSantis to take over the Florida state house where the GOP has control the governorship for 16 of the last 20 years. In Wisconsin, two-term Republican governor Scott Walker was defeated in a hotly contested race. Walker, who survived a recall election and secured a second term, has been endeared to the GOP for his attacks on organized labor.

Despite the good news from state houses, Democrats were stunned and angry at what was seen as a “can’t lose” opportunity to take back Congress and fight President Trump. As GOP victories moved east to west, Democratic strategists raised questions about the security of the vote and immediately called for investigations into specific races. “Russia denied Hillary Clinton the White House in 2016,” said one official speaking on background, “Why wouldn’t they continue to interfere to  make sure that their puppet president can continue to wreak havoc on the US.”

Speaking to reporters after midnight, a grim-looking Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Minority Leader, spoke darkly about possible election interference. Schumer also sought to cast the vote as less than legitimate, as only 42 percent of voters turned out. “Our voters stayed home,” Schumer said, “It’s not a legitimate vote if one side doesn’t participate.”

As the size of the Republican victory became evident, Progressive activists across the spectrum became active. Abortion rights supporters were particularly concerned about the size of the new Republican Senate majority, and the virtual certainty that dozens of new, conservative justices would be appointed in the next two years, let alone the possibility of new SCOTUS nominees, should  vacancies occur. “We need to bubble wrap RBG now,” said one.

The anti-fascist group, ANTIFA issued a statement, saying in part, “This wasn’t an election, it was a coup, instigated by right wing government officials and their foreign benefactors, all to suppress the basic rights of people of color in favor of a white nationalist agenda. We will not tolerate this unprecedented attack and will respond in kind.”

Other Democrats were sobered by exit polling data that broke sharply against Democrats. President Trump’s approval rating, at 48 percent, was the first rude surprise of the evening, a higher rating than President Obama had achieved in 2010. On individual issues, a clear majority supported Republican policies on the economy, taxes, trade, and immigration. Democrats led only on health care and the party most likely to protect Social Security.

The recent Progressive protests during and after the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing also played a role, as did the Caravan of refugees fleeing oppression in Central America. In each instance, Americans largely supported President’s Trump’s motto, “Jobs not mobs.” A plurality of Americans supported sending troops to the border if necessary to keep the Caravan out of the US.

Though one election has ended, another has begun. Senator Kamala Harris, (D-CA) issued a statement after GOP control of the Senate was confirmed, saying, “While the forces of change and progress did not achieve our goals tonight, the battle has only just begun. Starting tomorrow, I will be leading the fight, on the Senate floor and across the country, to take back our America from the forces of darkness.”

Campaign 2020 has just begun.