The conventional wisdom for 2018 is now solidly baked in. The midterms will be a referendum on the Trump presidency and it’s going to be catastrophic for Republicans, with the almost certain loss of the House and possible loss of the Senate. With a record number of Republican retirements, and the President’s approval rating in the toilet, the Democrats are set for their biggest comeback since 2006.
Additionally there are strong historical precedents for the opposition party to make gains in a new President’s first midterm election. With the exception of George W. Bush, the party of every sitting President in the post WWII era has lost ground in Congress during their first midterms. Recent elections, particularly on the local level, indicate an energized Progressive base that is furious with President Trump.
But maybe not.
Get past the manufactured, daily outrage and you can see the outlines of something different. Democrats ignore these developments at their peril.
Trump Had a Good First Year: the President delivered. From Gorsuch to immigration enforcement, from healthcare to regulatory reform, the Administration has fulfilled or is fulfilling promises made during the campaign. In addition, while economic performance in 2017 was well within the norms of the Obama era, there were a number of very significant “firsts,” during Trump’s first year which, when combined with the tax reform, have substantially shifted voter perceptions of the economy to a net positive.
In addition, in retrospect, the failure of a comprehensive Obamacare repeal, and the success of Tax Reform, may have been a blessing in disguise for Trump and the GOP. Midterm waves are regularly built around a single, deeply controversial issue. In ’94, it was Hillarycare. In ’06, it was Iraq. In 2010, it was Obamacare.
Trump’s centerpiece legislative achievement, tax reform, operates in the opposite way. Opposition during debate was largely a function of Democrat narratives of pending apocalypse. Today, the more people learn about the law – and critically, directly benefit from it, the better they like it.
While opposition to the President runs through a constellation of issues, and in particular, his personal conduct in office, the very diversity of causes fractures an effort at a united front that can be explained simply to voters.
Trump is Becoming More Adept at Policy: candidate Trump trafficked in angry absolutes. It electrified his base, but turned off huge swaths of the electorate. Deport all illegals. Build a wall that Mexico will pay for. Withdraw from “terrible” trade deals. Build tariff barriers to protect American jobs. End outdated alliances.
As Trump enters his second year, there is a new message, not so much at odds with the first, but more sophisticated and realistic. Gone is the talk of mass illegal immigrant expulsions. Now the focus is on enforcing laws on the books and trading incremental changes in illegal status for longer-term reform of the immigration system. There’s still the wall, but Trump wants Congress to pay for it.
At Davos, Trump outlined a common sense position on trade that is both free and fair, with a focus on bilateral agreements, and even opened the door to multilateral agreements again. The use of tariffs so far has been mercifully narrow, while the President has invited the world to invest in the US. At Davos, Trump affirmed the US security role in the world and commitment to alliances.
Trump appears responsible and reasonable.
Trump Has Become More Adept at Politics: the President’s first year demonstrated an unnerving inability to get out of his own way, and to create self-inflicted wounds. But there are grounds for hope here.
The Left’s reaction to the Trump presidency hasn’t been principled opposition to an agenda, but personal opposition to a man. It is a manifestly emotional reaction that has empowered the most extreme in the Democrat base, tilting the Democrat agenda – to the extent there is one – to positions far outside the mainstream of American politics.
Despite the tangible and continuing benefits of the tax law to average Americans, Democrats continue to discredit and demean the financial bounty of larger pay checks and bonuses for working Americans. Democrats irrationally closed the government down to force legal status for “Dreamers,” implicitly prioritizing illegals over American citizens. The Democrat answer to the massive failure of Obamacare is the unworkable and budget-busting concept of “single payer,” while Senator Kamala Harris, a likely White House contender for 2020, has all but asked fellow Progressives to actively support Partial Birth Abortion – opposed by over 80 percent of the American public.
Instead of fighting the Left as they drift toward extremism, Trump appears to be staking out a new middle ground, where, shockingly, the President looks reasonable and bipartisan. Trump has risked alienating his base – something Obama would never do – in order to reach accommodation on immigration. The Democrats have said that proposal is “Dead on Arrival.” POTUS is about to make a significant proposal on infrastructure, which has traditionally been a Democrat issue, but the Left has refused to support the initiative because it involves streamlining environmental regulations that often delay simple projects for years, adding billions to the cost.
If the White House and the GOP Congress maintain coordination and discipline, offering reasonable deals that Democrats reject on ideological purity to their base, it will shape the view of the electorate in November.
The Mueller Investigation is Likely Ending: with the Special Counsel’s office now seeking to interview Trump, it appears that the investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election is nearing the end. There is no public evidence of smoking gun. Indeed, even the media narrative has subtly changed from “collusion” to “obstruction.” But the question remains whether Trump can be charged with obstruction if there is no evidence of underlying crime.
If the Mueller investigation ends without recommending charges against Trump, the rationale for Progressive opposition to the Trump presidency will collapse. The foundation of #resist has always rested on the illegitimacy of Trump’s election. Having put all their faith in and defended Mueller, the Left can hardly flip and call the Special Counsel’s investigation ‘rigged.”
However, the belief in Trump’s illegitimacy without a factual basis for that illegitimacy will radicalize Democrats, making impeachment a litmus test for Democrat primary challengers. Instead of nominating the kind of moderate, reasonable candidates that won elections for Democrats in 2017 (Governor Ralph Northam in Virginia and Senator Doug Jones in Alabama), Democrats may end up with Leftist candidates out of step with swing districts, giving the GOP unexpected running room to wage more competitive races. It could lead to fulfillment of the most outrageous prognostication of year – that the GOP maintains, even enhances (in the Senate) its control of Congress.
There are 282 days until the midterms. This is a snapshot. A lot has to go right for an optimal Republican outcome. Much can still go wrong. However, given the state of politics and the opportunities on the table, a GOP route is not a foregone conclusion.
If Trump is cleared by the Special Counsel, the economy remains strong, and the GOP Congress focuses on infrastructure and other citizen-centric concerns, the midterms may end up very different that the conventional wisdom today.