In September 2013, Tea Party conservatives in the House effectively shut down the federal government for 15 days, all in a futile attempt to force repeal of Obamacare. Their demands unmet, the Members threatened to unravel the nation’s sovereign credit rating by refusing to take action on the debt limit, unless modifications were made to Obamacare.
That the Democrats held the majority in the Senate and President Obama wielded the veto pen, ensuring that no repeal or modification was ever going to happen in 2013, or for the rest of Obama’s term, were of no apparent concern. That a notable number of GOP members were willing to make political hostages out of government operations and the debt limit, was seen as nothing more than using tools that timid “establishment” Republicans had refused to touch. Indeed, the crowd sitting in the five dollar seats cheered lustfully, beaming with pride that there were at least some Republicans who were willing to fight.
Cooler heads and practical minds noted that simple math revealed that the Tea Party’s political path was little more than a suicide run. With a +5 Democrat majority in the Senate, and nowhere near the numbers necessary to overcome a president veto in the House, let alone the Senate, the best path was to build support for an all GOP government in 2014 and 2016. However, those who counseled caution were branded as “sellouts;” gutless insiders who lived lavish lifestyles inside the Beltway built off the status quo, giving no thought to the average Americans.
The Tea Party insurrection in 2013 ended as realists said it would. The government opened and was funded. The nation’s credit was secured. And there wasn’t a single change to Obamacare. When it comes to unconditional surrender, it doesn’t get much better than this. The defeat was an epic rebuke to the Tea Party faction.
The reputational results were also predictable.
According to an NBC News/WSJ poll, at the time, 53 percent of Americans blamed Republicans for the government shutdown. In addition, 60 percent said that what was happening in Washington made them worry more about the future of the economy. More than 2/3rds of Americans believed that Republicans had put their agenda ahead of their country’s interests. Specifically, the Tea Party put their agenda ahead of their country’s interests.
Fast forward a bit.
After the debacle of 2013, the GOP campaigned on Obamacare repeal in 2014. In 2016, all 17 Republican candidates for president were committed to Obamacare’s repeal. In the general election, GOP nominee Donald Trump made Obamacare repeal a top priority. Election Day delivered the means to accomplish the long sought objective – united GOP control of Congress and the presidency.
In the wake of the election, Paul Ryan and House leaders set about creating an Obamacare repeal plan, recognizing three, key realities; 1) as a result of Obamacare, the insurance marketplace pre-2010 no longer existed, leaving nothing for complete repeal of Obamacare to revert to, requiring a transition, 2) the GOP House majority is diverse, including both conservatives and centrists, requiring that the eventual proposal incorporate compromise to achieve agreement, 3) to use the reconciliation procedure in the Senate (to avoid the requirement for 60 votes) required that the Obamacare repeal and replace plan be broken into pieces, as certain elements of the whole plan would not be allowed under reconciliation.
Building a legislative proposal to meet these complex demands required adjustments that left no Republican feeling 100 percent satisfied. But the central goal and core promise of Republican elected leaders, going back to 2010, was achieved.
The American Health Care Act (AHCA) would have been the largest entitlement reform and spending reduction going back decades. It would have moved the health insurance industry from government-centric to patient centered care. It would have dismantled mandates and enable regulatory reforms that would reduce premiums, expand options and increase affordability. It would have ratified GOP governance in not simply replacing Obamacare, which is in a death spiral, but by creating something grounded in free market principles that would be superior.
But defeat was snatched from jaws of victory by the same people who shut the government down to repeal Obamacare in the first place. The irony here is too rich for words. The House Freedom Caucus (HFC), the latest incarnation of the Tea Party in the Congress, decided to say no.
HFC demanded a total repeal of Obamacare immediately, giving no thought to the reality that there was no secondary market in existence to pick up the slack, leaving millions without insurance.
HFC demanded immediate repeal of Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion to the states, which would have created havoc for 32 states – including GOP strongholds in the south and Midwest – that has accepted the funds and would be left holding the bill and a giant hole in their budgets.
HFC demanded inclusion of provisions to allow sale of insurance across state lines – a key Republican provision that would be included in the second phase of the plan, but one that is not allowed under the rules of reconciliation in the Senate, which prevent the addition of extraneous items not directly related to the budget.
Though the Trump administration and the House leadership worked overtime to meet HFC demands, the HFC refused anything less than 100 percent, which jeopardized support with the rest of the House caucus. In this manner, the HFC look very much like the Palestinians of the US Congress – never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Always insisting on one additional concession, but never getting to yes.
The HFC and it’s supporters branded AHCA as “Obamacare-Lite,” an insufficient effort that only locked in the O-care entitlement under different, only slightly more favorable terms to the free market. Their alternative proposals, while attractive to them, had no prayer of passing the House, let alone the Senate.
HFC’s argument with legislative reality was to double down on ideological fantasy.
And on those narrow, ideological grounds, they killed AHCA.
The HFC, whose forerunners shut down the government and nearly ruined America’s credit in 2013 to repeal O-care have now, paradoxically, saved it, and for that, they now own it.
Death spiral? HFC owns it.
Higher premiums, higher copays, fewer choices? HFC owns it.
Higher costs to the government? HFC owns it.
Immediately after Paul Ryan pulled the bill from the House floor, a narrative began, stating that when Obamacare finally implodes on its own contradictions, voters will blame Democrats, and at that point, a bipartisan solution will be possible, as Democrats come begging Republicans to save them.
This is worse that ludicrous.
Voters hold elected representatives and majorities responsible for what occurs under their stewardship. Elected leaders don’t stand by and intentionally allow a failing law to crash, and Americans to suffer, before taking action. The failure of House to pass an alternative to Obamacare does not rest with Nancy Pelosi and Democrats, but with the HFC. When O-care explodes, it will be Republicans, not Democrats who suffer voter wrath. The HFC owns that too.
By taking yesterday’s action, the HFC has humiliated a new GOP president on his first big-ticket legislative priority, shown voters that Republican election promises are hollow and cynical, and thrown into question whether the GOP can even govern.
Last night, everyone seemed happy to turn the page and move on to tax reform, but the HFC actions are going to cause significant complications there as well. Revenue and spending estimates used for GOP tax cut proposals were highly dependent on the $800 billion in savings in the AHCA. Without AHCA as law, the government will be working off of the existing baseline, which will make the budget hole from tax reform nearly a trillion dollars bigger.
Try selling that.
And of course, if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit by September, the government will again be at risk of default. After what the Tea Party Republicans pulled on the debt limit in 2011 and 2013, does anyone realistically think that Pelosi/Schumer and the Dems are going to step in and save the GOP on the debt ceiling?
Want to guess which caucus in the House is preparing to cause havoc and mayhem on tax reform and the debt limit unless their demands are met in full?
Yeah. Those guys.
If Trump cares about getting things done as president, he’d primary every one of the HFC members in 2018. That’s hard ball. But after yesterday, it’s necessary.