With about 12 hours to go before Dixville Notch, New Hampshire casts its votes for president, election prognostications remain all over the map.
Normally polls begin to converge closer to Election Day, but not this year. Today’s USC/LA Times tracking poll has Donald Trump at +5. In contrast, The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton up +4, as does FOX News. Two other poll trackers that have been friendly to Trump, IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen released opposite results today, with IBD putting Trump up +2 and Rasmussen putting Clinton up +2.
The disparate national data does not correlate to individual state races. According to RCP aggregate average, Mrs. Clinton is ahead by +2. Yet, in state contests, RCP has Trump winning OH, NC, IA and NV. NH and FL are virtual ties.
It doesn’t make sense.
In the end, the “X” Factor will be turnout, it’s size and composition. So here is a user guide to help deconstruct the results as they come in:
| Closing Time | State | Significance |
| 7:00PM | IN | Indiana is a reliably Republican state. Trump should win here comfortably. If the night begins with a “Too Close to Call” here, it will be a rough evening for Trump.
IN also features a marque Senate race between Republican Todd Young and former Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh has led for most of the race, but Young has momentum. If Young wins, it is a sign of solid turnout. |
| VA | Once a deep red state, Virginia has been a battleground since 2008, with the development of a much more diverse electorate. Northern Virginia has experienced explosive growth in the last 30 years and now controls the balance in the state. It is also home to thousands of federal workers hostile to Trump.
Trump needs to limit losses in Fairfax and Prince William County and win Loudon County in NOVA, coupled with strong turnout conservative strongholds in the southwest and central VA. RCP has Clinton at +5. A Trump win here would be a very good sign. If Trump held Clinton to less than a 5 point win, that would also be a good sign. |
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| 7:30PM | NC | A “must win” state for Trump. RCP has Trump up 1.7%. African American voting, critical to President Obama’s 2008 win, is down in the state, a bad sign for Mrs. Clinton. Likely to be “Too Close to Call” when polls close, a Clinton win here is bad news for Team Trump.
Republican Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election in a tight race. A comfortable win for Burr will be a good sign for Trump. |
| OH | No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. Trump’s biggest state lead in the RCP averages is in Ohio, at +3.5%. If he maintains that lead and wins the state, he is still in the game. | |
| 8:00PM | FL | Another “must win” state for Trump. If Clinton wins Florida, she can lose NC. VA, OH, NH, CO and NV and still win the election. RCP puts the state at Clinton +1. Democrats claim explosive growth in Latino ballots in early voting. Expect the state to be “Too Close to Call” when the panhandle closes.
Marco Rubio is in a competitive Senate race here. If he is winning comfortably, it could be a good omen for Trump, if voters are not ticket splitting. |
| NH | A small but key piece of Trump’s architecture of victory. NH hasn’t voted Republican since 2000. Clinton has led here for most of the campaign, but that lead has evaporated in the last two weeks. RCP puts Clinton’s lead at ½%. These four electoral votes could determine the election.
Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is running for re-election in a very competitive race against popular governor Maggie Hassan. An Ayotte victory could portend a close race or advantage Trump. |
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| PA | The GOP hasn’t won Pennsylvania since 1988. It is the proverbial “Lucy Pulls the Football” state for Republicans who always sense opportunity in the closing days of a presidential race, only to be disappointed. If PA is “Too Close to Call” at 8:00, it is a positive sign for Trump. If Trump wins PA, it will be proof of an election earthquake in the making.
Republican Senator Pat Toomey is running for re-election in a very competitive race where he has consistently been behind. If Toomey gains an edge, this will be a good sign for Trump. |
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| ME | A solidly blue state, Maine apportions its Electoral College votes, and this year, Trump is competitive in one of the congressional districts representing 1EV. This could be the sleeper vote that in a tight race put’s Trump over the top.. | |
| 9:00PM | IA | George W. Bush edged out John Kerry by a ½% in Iowa in 2004. The state has been solidly Democrat at the presidential level since. Iowa has a bright spot for Trump in the Midwest. He currently leads by +3. A win here is essential to a minimum victory, and represents a flip of a previous Democrat state. |
| AZ | Arizona is GOP country and Trump is up +4 in the RCP average, but Trump’s overall unpopularity with Latinos could lead to a possible upset.
John McCain seems set to safely win re-election. |
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| CO | George W. Bush won Colorado in 2004 by a comfortable 4 ½ points. Obama won by double digits in ’08 and by 5 points in ’12. RCP has Colorado as Clinton +3, inside the margin of error.
If Trump wins FL, NC, NH, OH and IA, but loses VA, PA, MI and WI, Colorado will clinch a victory. |
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| MI | The GOP has not won Michigan in 26 years. In 2012, President Obama won the state by 9 points, winning 95% of the state’s African American voters, who constituted 16% of the electorate.
The RCP average has Clinton up a solid 4.7% in MI, but Clinton campaign has been concerned about a precipitous drop in AA voting in a state where there are not enough Latino voters to make up the difference. A Trump win in MI would be historic as well as proof of a Trump win. |
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| WI | The GOP has not won Wisconsin since 1984. While capable of turning our solid conservatives at the state level (Scott Walker) and Bush 43 came within 1/2% of winning the state in 2004, the GOP has lost Wisconsin by double digits since. Demographics favor Trump, but Party ID and turn out do not. | |
| MN | The GOP has not won here in 44 years. Obama won by +8 in ’12. The electorate is 87% white that votes roughly down the middle. The remaining 14% of the state electorate overwhelmingly favors the Democrats. For the GOP to win here, it needs to open-up a significant lead in the white vote. A Trump win here would be unprecedented. | |
| 10:00PM | NV | George W. Bush was the last Republican to win Nevada, by 2 points in ’04. Obama won by +8 in ’12. The current RCP average has Trump up by 1.5, but on the ground analysts say a huge outpouring of Latino ballots in early voting in Clark County (most populous) has already locked up the state for Clinton.
If Trump carries FL, NC, OH, IA and NH and Clinton wins VA, PA, MI, WI and CO, it will all come down to Nevada (269D-264R). |
Don’t be surprised by surprises. While the combined major third party vote has steadily declined as we have gotten closer to Election Day, it remains an essentially unknown variable. Johnson has enjoyed his strongest support in the West, particularly in Colorado and Arizona. New Mexico has been a reliable Democrat state for the last two election cycles, but this is where Gary Johnson was governor. It could be a factor.
And don’t count out Utah. Third party independent candidate Evan McMullin – a Mormon – has been running in double digits in the state, and briefly held a polling lead. Utah is one of the handful of deeply red states that is also deeply opposed to Trump. If there is an upset in the making, it could be here.
Happy Voting/Watching.