First, some perspective.
Contrary to almost all the election coverage over the past year, in retrospect, evidence points to the fact that this has been a remarkably stable, even predictable election race.
One year ago Monday, Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders by 15 points.
She’s the nominee.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump was dominating, leading Ben Carson by 8, and third place Carly Fiorina by 11. Remember, there were 17 candidates in the race. All the rest were in single digits.
Trump is the nominee.
All the political commentary over the past twelve months has been a public process of reconciliation with this reality.
Debates don’t win you the election, but thay can almost certainly lose you the election. On Monday night, there will be just 43 days until Election Day. Barring a national crisis, or the famed “October Surprise” in the remaining weeks, there will not be a bigger opportunity to galvanize supporters and influence opinion, particularly with the roughly 15-20 percent of Americans who are currently undecided, set to vote third party, or who have tentatively decided not to vote. In a race that is effectively a polling toss up, Monday matters.
Advice for Trump:
If you can show courtesy, discipline and restraint for 90 minutes, you will be in a pole position to become the 45th president of the United States.
You are the “change” candidate in an election where only 34 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction. Moreover, your opponent is the real-life embodiment of the “Establishment,” encompassing everything Americans hate about politics. The public might not like you, personally, but they generally respect people who have been successful in the private sector and have become wealthy as a result. You are not a “rags to riches” story, but what you have done is your career is a part of the American Dream. Since 1992, you have probably had better personal ratings than Hillary Clinton – until you entered politics. Still, you are probably the candidate that voters would rather go get a beer with. That matters.
Further, the issues are with you. The economy and jobs, domestic terror, race relations, a failed foreign policy. Obama-Clinton own this. The logic of “Four More Years” only works when citizens are satisfied. True, your favorables are terrible. Your saving grace is that Mrs. Clinton’s are as bad or worse than yours. One cancels out the other.
However, you get pummeled by Mrs. Clinton on the questions of presidential experience, temperament and qualification. That is where you need to focus in the debate.
Recall two moments from the campaign; 1) your acceptance speech at the RNC, and, 2) your press conference in Mexico with President Pena Nieto. These are the pillars of your debate strategy. If the Trump from Mexico City can show up at Hofstra with the cogent views expressed in your acceptance speech, you will go a long way toward allaying fears about a Trump presidency.
You are no Reagan, but this is a 1980 moment. For you to succeed, you don’t need to go fact for fact with Mrs. Clinton. You just need to cross the bar of acceptability. Prove that you can be measured, thoughtful and deliberate. That Americans can go to sleep with you in the White House without worrying that a snarky tweet from Kim Jong-Un will trigger to a nuclear war.
Mrs. Clinton is going to goad you. It is her only real card to play since America doesn’t seem to care about the facts, truth or appropriateness of your past statements in this race. You are thin-skinned and there is no better way to show your lack of qualification than to trigger a lack of impulse control in front of 100 million people. If you meltdown, turn snarky and abusive, making faces and gesturing wildly, she wins. This Trumpian view of chivalry, that you only attack if attacked, has always been simplistic in formation. It may have served you well in the primaries, but it will not do on the stage Monday night.
Your record, such as it is, is indefensible, so don’t bother trying to defend it. Use 90 minutes to indict Hillary Clinton and the last eight years, no matter what the question is. Parry Lester Holt, and then pivot to the Obama-Clinton record, with you as a change agent. Generalities will be fine. This election is not being fought on policy or facts, but emotion. That’s your strong suit. The media will focus on your non-answers to the questions, tut tutting on Tuesday morning. Viewers will hear your message.
Use personal pronouns – “we” “our” – “We Americans” “Our military” “Our police.” This subtly contrasts with the hyphenated Americanism of Clinton and the American left that breaks citizens into victimized groups requiring government grievance remediation.
Your closing statement should go something like this:
“I didn’t get into this race for money or power – I already had enough of both. I made my wealth the old fashioned way – I earned it.
I joined this race because America, the greatest country on earth, has fallen on hard times. I joined the race because for me, being an American means something. It means we stand up to a government elite who cut insider deals that cost American jobs. It means that our first responsibility is to the safety and security of the American people, against those who would do us harm, both overseas and at home. It means that as a nation of laws, we don’t reward lawbreaking with citizenship.
We are at a crossroads, America. On November 8th, we can break the cycle of decline and division, but the time is now. Our Supreme Court hangs in the balance. We are just one judge away from a liberal Court that will undermine fundamental rights.
I am not a politician. I am not polished or rehearsed. I say what I think. My words are not always perfect, but my intentions are genuine. No matter if you are white, black or brown, man or woman, gay or straight, we are all Americans first, and together we can build a better more prosperous future, not just for us, but for our children, by putting America first.
My name is Donald Trump, and I ask for your vote.
God bless you, and god bless America.”