You are sitting in Trump Towers.
You have been hired by the most unconventional, major party nominee in American history to help him win the presidency. After several months on the job, you have a sense of the man. In front of you is a map of the United States, with red and blue pins. On your desk is a pile a polling data and a count-down clock that shows there are less than 120 days until the election.
What do you do?
First, you acknowledge the harsh realities.
Your client is the most polarizing presumptive nominee since the advent of modern polling, with a disapproval rating of 60 percent among the American people. Harsh rhetoric and controversial policy positions have alienated minorities, the non-Christian faithful, women, and those with college degrees.
Since wrapping up the nomination in May, your client has done little to unite the party, though he won the nomination with only 44 percent of the popular vote. Humility and reconciliation do not appear to be part of his vocabulary or life experience. Indeed, the client treats the Republican Party and its officials/members as a businessman would view the management of a company acquired in a hostile take-over.
As a result, for the first time since 1976, conservative activists have plotted to de-throne the presumptive nominee at the party’s convention (though you’ve quashed this). About 50 percent of Republicans want someone other than your client as the nominee, and that appears to be more enduring.
In general election match ups, your client is getting less than 80 percent of the GOP vote, a dangerous level of support, and not nearly enough to win.
The impact of all of this on the electoral map is sobering.
True, things are looking up in Pennsylvania, which the GOP hasn’t won since 1988, but Georgia, Arizona and Missouri are potentially in play, which hasn’t been the case since 1992-96. And you’re just grateful that all the battleground states still remain competitive – Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire, which together represent 95 electoral votes. With the exception of North Carolina, which split the difference, the GOP has lost all of them in the last two elections
How do you create a win out of this?
First, you recognize that from here to Election Day, there are only three events the campaign really has control over – the VP selection, the convention and the debates. Each is a window for voters into the thinking of the nominee and a de facto interview for the presidency.
You make the most out of what you can control.
You look at the electoral map again, and you look at your client’s performance in the primaries.
His voters were overwhelmingly white, without a college degree, making under 50K and religious. Beating expectations, your client did much better among Evangelicals that anyone could have imagined. But since May, your client’s standing with the most religious voters has slipped. These voters are the key to the GOP base.
An appeal to “Big Tent” Republicanism is out of the question, and, sadly, would turn off some of the client’s most die-hard supporters. In addition, the unpredictability of the presumptive nominee himself makes this an even trickier gamble – one bad interview could implode the whole effort.
So, you have no choice but to double down.
Which states fit the profile of the candidate’s primary victories that can create an electoral college majority? Start with the battleground states. (Data taken from 2012 Exit Polls)
| State | Electoral Votes | % Women | % Minority | % College Educated | % Religious |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 52 | 7
(93% white) |
52 | 25 |
| Virginia | 13 | 53 | 28
(70% white) |
54 | 43
(23% Born-Again) |
| Florida | 29 | 55 | 30 | 48 | 24 (Born Again) |
| Colorado | 9 | 51 | 23 | 49 | 25 (Born Again) |
| North Carolina | 15 | 56 | 30 | 47 | 47
(35% Born Again |
| Iowa | 6 | 54 | 7
(93% white) |
42 | 42
(38% Born Again) |
| Ohio | 18 | 52 | 18
(79% white) |
40 | 31 (Born Again) |
Off the top, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida and Colorado are looking problematic. It is not to say that they are beyond reach, as current polls show tight races, but the demographic and racial composition doesn’t fit with the client. If he were to lose them all, that’s a net loss of 55 electoral votes.
The good news is that Iowa and Ohio are in the candidate’s sweet spot. These 24 electoral votes have gone Democrat for two elections, but are clearly winnable. North Carolina is on the knife’s edge. Once reliably Republican, it split for Obama in ’08 and Romney in ’12 by the smallest of margins. It’s winnable but will require work. However, winning North Carolina doesn’t expand the electoral college map, it only maintains it.
Where do you make up the deficit?
| State | Electoral Votes | % Women | % Minority | % College Educated | % Religious
|
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 52 | 19
(78% white) |
48 | N/A |
| Michigan | 16 | 51 | 19
(77% white) |
46 | 28 (Born Again) |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 51 | 11
(86% white) |
42 | 24 (Born Again) |
| Minnesota | 10 | 51 | 12
(87% white) |
47 | 34
(24% Born Again) |
These four states, which have not voted Republican since the 1980s, represent the client’s best shot, and with 56 electoral votes, more than makes up for the potential loss Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire and Colorado. Still, there is no underestimating the “Hail Mary” aspect here. In 2012, the GOP lost Pennsylvania by five, Minnesota by six, Wisconsin by seven and Michigan by nine.
That said, if the client can hold the Romney states, pick up Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, he wins the electoral college 286-252. He can even afford to lose Arizona (11EV) or North Carolina (15) and still eek out a bare electoral college win.
Given this math, what kind of running mate makes sense?
The VP candidate would ideally be an Evangelical, but barring that, certainly a strong social conservative, with a record to prove it. That candidate would have strong pre-existing ties to social conservatives, with the ability to translate the client to movement conservatives and provide reassurance.
Ideally, the VP candidate would be a Midwesterner and have conventional political experience in both the legislative and executive branches. Someone with a conservative record on fiscal and national security issues, to provide reassurance to “on-the- fence” Republicans. Someone who is scandal and controversy free, who would balance out the temperament and style of the client. A “governing” choice.
Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) checks all those boxes.
For the die-hard Trump supporters, Pence is a disappointment. Few have ever heard of him, and he is guilty of the biggest sin in Trump-land – he is the definition of boring. You won’t hear Pence making outrageous claims, attacking people on Twitter or insulting any number of people for perceived insults. But this is a net positive, even if the Trumpsters don’t see it yet. Their personal favorite for VP, Newt Gingrich, carries nearly as much baggage and scandal as Trump himself. His selection would have been a serious, potentially fatal problem.
There are still issues to tackle with Pence; there are some messy policy contradictions between Trump and Pence that will be grist for the mill at next week’s convention. Pence is a free trader who thinks that Trump’s Muslim ban is crazy. The candidates are more closely aligned on immigration. Pence will do what he has to do to align with Trump.
The Pence pick signals the Trump playbook for the general election, and really the only path to victory; he is going to try to do what no major party nominee has done since 1988 – win an election on the strength of the white vote alone. This has significant cultural impacts for the US should Trump win, and will echo far into the future if he loses.
This path is possible, not probable, and much depends on the success of the convention and the debates, with the incalculable risk of events playing a crucial role. A stock market crash, recession, Clinton scandal or major terror attack could rapidly change the dynamics of the race.
But for now, the strategy is set. The client, with his big and bold pronouncements stays national and in the limelight. Pence is freed up to micro focus on the six states that are the difference between victory and defeat.
If you are sitting in Trump Towers, above all, you must work with the cards that you are dealt. At the end of the day, Pence is the best shot – among available candidates – in executing a strategy where Trump has of chance of winning.