It has been 496 days since Ted Cruz formally kicked off the 2016 presidential race, announcing his candidacy in Lynchburg, VA on March 23, 2015.
Since then, a total of 21 people joined the race for the Republican and Democratic nominations. Nearly $1.4 billion was raised by the candidates and outside committees to compete. In total, nearly 58 million Americans turned out to vote in the primaries, 28 percent of eligible voters.
All that effort, energy, intensity and commitment, and to what result?
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
A more profoundly unsatisfying choice is hard to imagine.
Today, I present the first of two reviews on the major party candidates, starting with the GOP.
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Donald Trump is a cloning experiment gone terribly wrong.
He is the residue of a witch’s cauldron, conjured in human form to embody the least attractive personal characteristics of our cultural experience.
He is a human tornado, made possible only by the conditions around him, inherently unpredictable and capable of catastrophic impact, but driven by simple impulse and ultimately without substance. The proof of his existence is the wreckage he leaves in his wake.
Trump is the least conventional nominee of either major party in the last century. Yet he has brilliantly harnessed public contempt for government into a movement that could land him a four-year rental at the toniest property in Washington, DC, complete with security protection and the nuclear codes.
But in this new role as a vicar of change and improvement, Trump is less John D. Rockefeller than PT Barnum.
The business record that Trump touts as his qualification for national leadership can only be considered a success if viewed precisely the way Trump describes it. Even the most cursory analysis reveals serial failure, not simply in his core real estate business, but in the quixotic mix of poorly thought out side businesses that Trump undertook, raising relevant questions over basic judgement, which is fundamental to his presidential bid.
How does a renowned real estate developer open a mortgage company months before Lehman induced housing collapse? Why on earth would anyone want to buy a Trump steak – or any steak – from Sharper Image?
Trump is living proof that the “Peter Principle” is alive and well.
But Trump’s staying power over 30 years reveals an apparent rare moment of self-reflection where the New Yorker realized his true gift – branding. In this, he resembles no one quite like the fictional Don Draper of “Mad Men;” an imposter who rose to fame and riches with an unrivaled marketing talent, based on an innate ability to connect emotion to advertising.
Draper made cigarettes desirable. Trump made Trump desirable.
This is crucial to understanding Trump as a 2016 candidate.
Begin by thinking of this year not as an election campaign, but an advertising campaign. The product is America, and the Trump brand is going to make it great again.
That market is there; marginalized low wage, blue-collar whites, alienated from the political process and seething with resentment about a disconnected political elite that could not possibly care less what they think and feel. And better, none of the other “firms” competing to brand America seem to recognize this market, preoccupied as they are with position papers and canned speeches on policies that have little to do with what drives the kitchen table conversations of a key demographic. They are static and distant – dry, hallow and, worst of all, boring.
To connect to that fear, insecurity, resentment and longing for better days, speak simply and plainly. Speak to results, not process. Speak with conviction, and don’t equivocate. Never apologize. Make your goals big and your to-do list short.
Repeat.
In this construct, the currency of politics – facts, details, issues and principles – hold little value, to the consternation of an entire generation of politicos for whom this is the life blood. Let the other guys waste their time sweating that out. This is all about promoting emotion and belief. In this paradigm, policy positions aren’t the preview of governance, but rather tactical tools to be used and changed in order to promote the brand. The harping media and competitors who continually point out inconsistencies? Part of a rigged and dishonest system.
You are going to do what is right for America, whatever it takes. Let the losers quibble about details.
Shockingly, Trump supporters get it.
Asked if a President Trump would successfully ban Muslims, deport Latinos and build trade barriers and concrete walls (paid for by other sovereigns), most are realistic. Some see Trump’s promises as inspired rhetoric that will mellow with governance. Others, who hold Trump to his word, believe that even if he is only able to accomplish one objective, he will have done more for America than any other person running this year.
In the next 100 days, Trump will have to expand his market share, from 44 percent of the GOP primary electorate to 50.1 percent of country; no easy task for anyone holding the Republican mantle, even more challenging for Trump.
Trump’s message and methods have alienated wide swaths of the electorate. The GOP hasn’t been this divided since 1964. Whole ethnic communities have been disgusted by Trump’s rhetoric and the underlying perceptions that inform them.
And in a very real way, Trump cannot get out of his own way. A disciplined candidate, even with an unconventional approach, would be capable of rudimentary impulse control. Trump’s narcissism, epic thin skin and grade school rules to attack anyone who utters the mildest criticism, lead him to step on his own message time and time again, creating otherwise avoidable problems that inform a powerful counter-critique that he is wholly unqualified by experience and temperament to take on the world’s toughest job.
And yet…
And yet…
Trump’s pulse of America was contextually, spot on.
Take Trump out of the equation for a moment and concern over the economy, jobs, terrorism and domestic lawlessness dominate. People struggle with rising costs, while Wall Street bonuses go through the roof. The country’s faith in the federal government is at an all time low, as nothing seems to get done. Everyone points fingers. No one does anything about it.
Trump’s convention speech spoke to the unease and alienation.
While the speech was panned by most of the professional media and critics, in a CNN poll, 57 percent of viewers had a very positive view of Trump’s remarks. 73 percent thought that his policies represented the right direction for the country. 56 percent said they were more likely to vote for Trump based on the speech.
Was the speech politically coherent? Of course not. In only one example, Trump reached out to Bernie voters based on his support of tougher trade deals, while at the same time complimenting Pence’s conservative governance of Indiana, and calling for abolition of trillions in regulations and a large tax cut, which would be an anathema to Berners.
But remember, that doesn’t matter.
Do you ever see an obese person in a fast food commercial? A drunk person in an alcohol commercial? Of course not, though the products contribute to both, and the audience watching knows it. Like a Clydesdale’s unlikely friendship with a puppy has been used to sell beer, it is about creating an emotional connection between the viewer and the product.
Trump wants to put America First.
In a country where a significant cohort feels that the nation has lost direction, purpose and spirit, it is not bad ground to stake out, particularly with an opponent who has still not fully rationalized her candidacy.
Though I have not and do not support Trump, and will not vote for him, given the mood of the country and the skill with which he has positioned himself, it is hard not to conclude that barring an as yet unknown calamity or revelation, that Trump possesses the requisite 50-50 chance of becoming president.
On November 8th, will America bet the country on a pair of 5s?