There was an optimistic moment, in the after-glow of the 2014 elections, where the Republican path forward was crystal clear. With control of both chambers of Congress, the GOP could simultaneously show off its governance bone fides – that it could be trusted as the adult party in Washington – while using favorable opportunities to contrast a Republican vision for the future with that of President Obama and the Democrats.
The two-year project would lay the groundwork for the election of a Republican president in 2016, and with united control of the Federal government, the GOP would roll up its sleeves and do that hard work necessary to restore America before the country was consumed by debt, desperation and division.
So much for that plan.
The future of the House of Representatives today, indeed the future of a Republican majority in Congress and even the hope of a Republican president in 2017 now lays in the in the hands of a group of 30-40 odd conservative lawmakers who call themselves the House Freedom Caucus (HFC).
But of course they are horrendously misbranded.
A more accurate name would the “Chaos Caucus,” a grouping of entitled and demagogic Members who arrogantly claim to represent a purer version of conservatism, superior in every respect to their colleagues who show heretical signs of pragmatism – or worse, compromise – though the HFC is without the slightest idea of how to turn its principles into a governing majority or law.
In a chamber that recognizes and promotes the “work horses,” the Members who do the difficult and time-consuming job of mastering issues, and the mechanics of building coalitions and majorities to legislate (think Paul Ryan), the HFC is no more than a large concentration of “show horses,” impatient, obsessed with immediate gratification and their own advancement, regardless of the consequences.
The basic flaws in the Caucus are obvious and troubling:
They Flunk Basic Math and Civics: [218, 60, 287, 67] and [247, 54]. The first set of numbers represents the majorities required to get legislation to the president, followed by the super majorities required to override a presidential veto in the House and Senate. The next bracket shows the existing GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
You do not need to be a rocket scientist to see that without more GOP seats in the Senate, and a Republican president, there is virtually no chance that any legislation sponsored by the HFC can ever – ever – become law while President Obama is in office. While the HFC is correct that the filibuster rule in the Senate is not a constitutional requirement (though its origin is nearly as old as the Republic itself) there is no getting around the constitutional requirement to override a presidential veto.
The HFC would happily have the Senate throw away the filibuster – the only tool that protected the GOP minority in the dismal first years of the Obama era – only to have Obama veto the bill successfully in any event.
“Hostage-Taking” is Not a Successful Legislative Strategy: House conservatives successfully forced a government shut down in 2013 in a futile effort to prevent implementation of Obamacare.
Conservatives crowed about the grassroots revolt that would rise up as the public at large would blame Democrats and the President for both the shutdown and failure to kill the biggest achievement of the Obama administration.
It was worse than fantasy.
There was no popular uprising. Public support for the GOP cratered as citizens overwhelmingly blamed Republicans for the shutdown, severely damaging the GOP brand. In the end, it was the GOP that was forced into a humiliating surrender.
The shutdown achieved nothing.
And contrary to HFC revisionists, it was not the shutdown, but public disgust with Obamacare implementation, the IRS scandal and other Democratic incompetence that fueled GOP victories in 2014.
The public innately understood what the HFC could not – and still does not – grasp. While a majority of Americans opposed Obamacare, even opponents of the healthcare law did not uniformly favor shutting down the government to achieve the goal.
The lesson continues to go unlearned by the HFC which effectively unseated Boehner by threatening a government shutdown over Planned Parenthood funding.
“Principled Failures” are Not Politically Valuable: nothing animates the HFC as much as the idea of a principled fight and their utter disgust with a GOP leadership that won’t force a showdown on every issue.. In essence, what distinguishes the HFC from the rest of the Republican caucus is their ardent belief that losing is actually winning.
In this alternate reality, closing down the government to end Obamacare, or the 71 minutes of federal spending for Planned Parenthood, or, more ominously, raising the debt ceiling, that these actions not only endear them to voters, but lay the groundwork for a broader conservative renaissance across the country.
It is utterly preposterous.
Yes, yes, a very high percentage of constituents from the districts of these three dozen members will be high-fiving, sending messages of gratitude to their Members for standing firm. But that works out to roughly six percent of the American people. Even if you add in other conservatives from around the country who will similarly praise the HFC, there is no way you get near anything resembling a majority.
That is the fundamental contradiction. You don’t get a reputation for being principled; you get a reputation for being reckless an irresponsible.
Pickett’s Charge, the Charge of the Light Brigade, even Japanese Kamikazes during WWII were considered brave, courageous or inspired by their supporters of the day. Yet in history, these are little more than turning points in desperation.
Having now claimed John Boehner’s scalp, and running Kevin McCarthy out of the race for Speaker, the HFC is certainly feeling its oats. 16 percent of the GOP caucus holds the rest of its members, and the institution of the House of Representatives, hostage.
So, what does the HFC want? This is the “dog caught the car” moment for the HFC.
Not one of their Members can command a majority to become Speaker, which should be telling in and of itself.
No Republican who understands the unique requirements of a governing majority can responsibly agree to shut down the government for every legislative demand that are mathematically impossible to achieve, or worse, commit to defaulting on the debt.
So, it appears that the HFC demands turn to process, which sounds benign enough. The HFC would dismantle the seniority structure of the House, effectively neuter the power of the Speaker to something near a figurehead, provide for the direct election of committee chairs and allow unlimited amendment powers by individual members on the floor. It would also restrain leadership from taking punitive action against caucus members who refused to support leadership priorities.
What this is in actuality is a coup.
Nine percent of the House of Representatives are demanding that a structure built on seniority and experience, which provides a political party with the ability to collectively speak in one voice, be trashed. In its place would be a chaotic open forum designed to allow HFC members to move to the head of the line, regardless of their level of preparation or experience.
The HFC are today’s illegal immigrants of the House; demanding political affirmative action for their Members as the price of “cooperation.” To agree to these terms would be a Munich-level sellout by the Republican Party and the effective end of GOP hopes to create a constructive conservative coalition to lead the nation out of Obamaism.
Ironically it is the Democrats and Nancy Pelosi who offer a constructive counter-point to the HFC.
Elected in the wave election of 2006, fueled by public opposition to the Iraq War, Speaker Pelosi and her caucus never threatened a government shutdown to defund the war in Iraq. She and her caucus understood, in a way that the HFC does not, that only the election of a Democratic president would provide a genuine opening to end the war and launch progressive governance.
The public may have been against the war, but everyone was in favor of the troops. Not all that different from being against the Obamacare but in favor of the government operations.
Pelosi used her office to compare and contrast Democratic policies with those of the GOP. She pushed progressive priorities and worked tirelessly to create the impression that the GOP was unfit to govern. But she never threatened a government shutdown to bring the Iraq War to a close by effectively defunding it. She could count, and knew Bush could override her efforts. And she also knew that un-funding troops in the field – even in an unpopular war, would be a public relations nightmare that would be epic baggage for the eventual Democratic nominee.
That’s right. I just said it. Nancy Pelosi has more political sense than the entire HFC.
Today, it’s not the Democrats who make the Republicans look like an ungovernable majority, but the HFC. Instead of turning their fire on those that would consolidate Obamaism, they rage against their own leadership and cheer when their obstruction forces resignation.
It is appalling.
I don’t know who the next Speaker will be, but for that candidate to be successful, they will have to stand up against HFC extortion. Dictators demand and coerce. Democracies persuade and coalesce.
Where the GOP can agree with the President, on Trans-Pacific Free Trade Agreement for instance, it should vote that way. Bad Administration proposals or progressive bills to expand government, regulation and spending should be exposed, and Members should be given the opportunity to express their views through votes on bills that define the GOP from the Democrats. Planned Parenthood is only one of those issues.
But when it comes to governing, the country and the Institution of the House are more important than 16 recalcitrant percent of the majority party. If it takes Democratic votes to keep the government open and America’s credit rating intact, then so be it.
Make no mistake. Our nation has just one election left to turn America around. If the Democrats hold the White House in 2016, the economic and security policies of the Obama administration will be so entrenched in daily life, that it will be virtually impossible to undo them. A legacy of crippling, unsustainable debt, a hollowed out workforce, stagnant wages, burdensome regulations, feeble economic growth, increased government intrusion into daily life, lower living standards at home and greater risk from enemies abroad, will be the new normal.
No faction, no matter how well intentioned, should prevent the GOP from preventing this catastrophe.
The HFC reign of terror needs to end – now.