There are two factual and undisputable reasons why Donald Trump should not be the Republican nominee.
Trump is Not a Conservative: barrels of ink have been spilled developing new and inventive words to describe Trump, but “conservative” is not one of them. If Trump is the Republican nominee, the “R” at the end his name ceases to have any contemporary meaning or relevance.
Republicans are committed to free markets and free trade as fuel for an engine of economic prosperity. Undisputable economic data since 1950 shows that these policies are responsible for the greatest increase in economic growth in world history, lifting more people out of poverty, increasing living standards, and creating more wealth and innovation than at any other time in human history.
Trump is committed to protectionism and tariffs, a new mercantilism that will depress global growth and trade and compound the problems experienced by America’s working class with stagnant or falling wages and job scarcity.
Republicans are committed to a strong international role for America, recognizing that global economic and security pillars are the foundation of stability and thus the best guarantee of security and prosperity at home.
Trump is, well, it depends on the day, mood and circumstance.
Serious analysts of international affairs saw Russia’s direct engagement in Syria as both a colossal failure of Obama policy, as well as a dangerous and complicating factor in any attempt to address the Syrian civil war and the threat posed by Islamic State. Trump, in contrast, was initially pleased to have Russia and Putin take the burden off America, espousing a quasi-isolationist message. It was only after the attacks at San Bernardino that Trump aimed his flammable rhetoric at ISIS.
For Trump, it is policy-by-Twitter-feed.
Republicans are constitutionalists, committed to limited government, checks and balances between the branches of government, and above all, the rights and liberty of individual Americans. There is no evidence that Trump believes in any of this, and many of his policy proposals fly in the face of these defining principles.
Core constitutional rights appear to exist conditionally for Trump, in direct relation to their potential for interference in Trump’s agenda-of-the-moment. Trump-world would effectively create tiers of American citizenship, where Trump’s sense of perceived threat would justify patently unconstitutional 4th amendment infringements on American citizens based on ethnicity; be it harassment of Latinos in search of illegals, or Muslims in search of terrorists. Those lustily cheering Trump might pause to consider what happens when it is their turn.
In addition, when he’s not insulting opponents, real or perceived, Trump’s favorite personal pronoun is “I”. In the Trump-world of “cut-through-the-red-tape” action, you don’t hear a lot about the rest of the government. .
That wall he wants to build on the Rio Grande? That data base of Muslims he wants to create? The travel ban on Muslims he wants to initiate? The security force that will need to be hired, trained and deployed in order root out and evict 11 million illegal immigrants on schedule? Trump can’t do any of it without Congress, since none of it can be done without money, and only Congress has the power to appropriate it. Even on potentially less inflammatory topics, such as Trump’s boast that he will negotiate the gold standard of trade agreements relies entirely on his ability to marshal a majority of Congress in support.
Indeed what is so ironic about Trump’s most committed supporters is that they continue to back him, though he espouses only a different kind of activist, intrusive and unilateral governance that is so thoroughly reminiscent of President Obama; a kind of leadership that over the past seven years has so infuriated Trump’s base.
It is both illogical and unsettling.
Trump isn’t a Republican; he is a cult of personality. It is true that Trump is a very successful businessman, and head of a large company with international holdings. But that doesn’t make him a conservative, and it does not qualify him to be president.
The Vast Majority of Republicans Don’t Support Trump: seem counter-intuitive, right? Trump dominates every poll, most in double digits, and has done so since this past summer. According the Real Clear Politics national average, Trump is just shy of 30 percent support nationally, outstripping the #2 Ben Carson by 12 points. With such an overwhelming lead, how can Trump not be the nominee?
Well, looking at this poll another way, 70 percent of Republicans don’t support Trump. That 70 percent is split among 12 other candidates, creating a balkanized GOP field, currently unable to unite around a single candidate or two, leaves Trump looking more formidable than he actually is.
Two other facts stand out. First, according the latest CBS poll, only 34 percent of Republican primary voters have made up their minds – 66 percent are still deciding. And that fact does not necessarily bode well for Trump garnering more support. Dig into the polls and you begin to see how deep the opposition to Trump is within the party, with a heavy plurality saying they would not support Trump under any circumstances. That, and not the 30 or so percent are the Republican party – not Trump.
The irony here is that even with 70 percent against him, Trump could conceivably be the nominee.
The Republican nomination is decided by delegates not polls. States holding primaries or caucuses before March 15th will award delegates based in proportion to the vote total, ensuring that at least several candidates can declare “victory” and continue to the next contest. Winner-take-all primaries are allowed after March 15th, with many state opting to divide their delegates between winners in individual congressional districts, with a bulk of delegates going to the winner statewide.
The “magic number” for the nomination then becomes 1,237 delegates – 50 percent plus one delegate. With the rules as they are, unless the 70 percent of Republicans currently not supporting Trump coalesce around a candidate, Trump can win the nomination with less than 50 percent support of the party.
Ultimately, what is so profoundly sad about the current state of chaos in the Republican field is that Trump’s rise does reflect the very real and deep wounds of a broad cross-section of America, forgotten by the President, sold out by Washington and left to wither on a vine while those with money and connections moved on. But in choosing Donald Trump as a vehicle to channel their rage, resentment and champion their redemption, these Americans all but insure the election of Hillary Clinton, who will complete and make irreversible the work of President Obama, who has done such material and spiritual damage to this cohort.
Because of this, Trump is not salvation – he is suicide.
For true conservatives and Republicans, the coming months will be a crucible of principle. What do we stand for and how deeply do we believe?
What comes out at the end of the process next July will go far in determine the future of conservativism in America. In the end, it may not be Trump, bolting the party over they bogeyman of a mythic and all-powerful “establishment,” determined to deny him the nomination, but rather people of good conscience who will leave the Republican party rather than be associated with such an unfortunate and toxic manifestation as Trumpism.
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