Parsing Helsinki

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Outclassed at every turn…

Helsinki was a disaster for the US, but not simply for President Trump’s disgraceful conduct during the Q&A portion of the summit.

Remember, Trump and Putin met, alone, for two hours. No aides to turn to, no experts to consult. It was just them. To understand the dynamic created between the two leaders in those 120 minutes, we need to refer to the opening statements.

What becomes clear in those statements is fairly breathtaking. Not only was Vladimir Putin superbly prepared, in contrast to Trump, he didn’t give an inch. Couched in the language of constructive dialogue is a distinctly Russian agenda that President Trump did not fundamentally challenge in the press conference. This casts a shadow on President Trump’s post-press conference promises of substantial progress in the US-Russia relationship to come.

Below is the transcript of the opening statements of both presidents, with my editorial comments. I edited the statements for clarity. Any readers who question the methodology for that editing are free to check the full transcript here.

“Mr. Putin: It’s quite clear to everyone that the bilateral relationship are going through a complicated stage, and yet those impediments, the current tension, the tense atmosphere, essentially have no solid reason behind it…. [Wrong. Russian invasion of Georgia, Russian annexation of Crimea, Russian invasion of east Ukraine, Russian responsibility for shooting down a civilian airliner, Russia poisoning citizens of sovereign NATO nations, and Russia’s attempt to interfere in the US 2016 election] both Russia and the United States face a whole new set of challenges. Those include a dangerous maladjustment of mechanisms for maintaining international security and stability, [This is a reference to NATO, which Putin wants to destabilize if not eliminate] regional crises, the creeping threats of terrorism and transnational crime, the snowballing problems in the economy, environmental risks and other sets of challenges. We can only cope with these challenges if we join ranks and work together. Hopefully we will reach this understanding with our American partners. [Conditional]
 Today’s negotiations reflected our joint wish — our joint wish with President Trump to re-address this negative situation in the bilateral relationship. [Shared blame] I outlined first steps for improving this relationship, to restore the acceptable level of trust and going back to the previous level of interaction on all mutual interest issues….This includes the extension of the Strategic Offensive Arms Limitation Treaty. It’s a dangerous situation with a global American antimissile defense system, [Putin is tying extension of START to new limits on US anti-ballistic missiles systems. New START did not link these two issues in 2010] it’s the implementation issues with the INF [intermediate-range nuclear forces] treaty. And, of course, the agenda of non-placement of weapons in space. [Russia is tying arms reductions treaties to US ABM development across the board]
We favor the continued cooperation in counterterrorism and maintaining cybersecurity. [Sure, why not.  Get alerts on possible terror attacks and learn more about US cyber capabilities]  I recall I reminded President Trump about this suggestion to re-establish the working group on antiterrorism. We also mentioned a plethora of regional crises. It’s not always that our postures dovetail exactly, and yet the overlapping and mutual interests abound. We have to look for points of contact and interact closer in a variety of international forum. 
Clearly, we mentioned the regional crisis, for instance Syria. As far as Syria is concerned, the task of establishing peace and reconciliation in this country could be the first showcase example of the successful joint work. Russia and the United States apparently can act proactively and take considerable leadership on this issue, and organize the interaction to overcome humanitarian crisis and help Syrian refugees to go back to their homes. [No mention regarding who will govern Syria or the treatment and disposition of anti-Assad rebels. Peace on Russian terms]
Mr. President paid special attention to the [Syria] issue during today’s negotiations. And I would like to confirm that Russia is interested in this development and will act accordingly. Thus far, we will make a step toward creating a lasting peace in compliance with the respective resolutions of Security Council, for instance, the Resolution 338[This cements Russia’s position as arbiter in Syria and fully reestablishes a permanent presence in the Middle East, after a 25 year absence. Resolution 338 passed in 1973 to end the Israeli-Syrian war, calls for an immediate ceasefire, managed by the US and Russians, AND full implementation of the Resolution 242, which called for Israel to return to its pre-1967 war lines] 
We are glad that the Korean Peninsula issue is starting to resolve. To a great extent, it was possible thanks to the personal engagement of President Trump, who opted for dialogue instead of confrontation. We also mentioned our concern about the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal]. Well, the U.S. — our U.S. counterparts are aware of our posture. Let me remind you that thanks to the Iranian nuclear deal, Iran became the most controlled country in the world. It submitted to the control of IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. It effectively ensured the exclusively peaceful nature of Iranian nuclear program and strengthened the nonproliferation regime. [The Russians haven’t moved an inch in their support for the Iranians]
While we discussed the internal Ukrainian crisis, we paid special attention to the bona fide implementation of Minsk Agreements by Kiev. [A 2014 protocol aimed at creating a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, calling for Kiev to provide autonomy to Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.  No mention of Russia withdrawing its support for rebels] At the same time, United States could be more decisive in nudging the Ukrainian leadership and encourage it to work actively on this. [Putin wants the US, which was not party to the 2014 agreement, to bless this arrangement which solidifies Russian de facto control in eastern Ukraine]
 We paid more attention to economic ties and economic cooperation. We agreed — me and President Trump — we agreed to create a high-level working group that would bring together captains of Russian and American business. After all, entrepreneurs and businessmen know better how to articulate this successful business cooperation. We’ll let them think and make their proposals and suggestions in this regard. [Meaningless. Russia has an extractive economy. It doesn’t make anything of value except military equipment. This is a proposal to formalize Oligarch interactions with the US and ending US sanctions] 
Once again, President Trump mentioned the issue of the so-called interference of Russia with the American elections, and I had to reiterate things I said several times, including during our personal contacts, that the Russian state has never interfered and is not going to interfere into internal American affairs, including election process. [By mentioning the other topics before this, Putin signals were he considers its importance to the bilateral relationship] 
Any specific material — if such things arise — we are ready to analyze together. [Clever. If the US were to turn over its raw data to the Russians, it would be providing the Russian security services with a roadmap to US cyber-security capabilities] For instance, we can analyze them through the joint working group on cybersecurity, the establishment of which we discussed during our previous contacts.  And we have to engage experts on bilateral relationship who know history and the background of our relationship.[This is a disguised bid to get US backing for a commission that would legitimize Russian claims that the US interfered in Putin’s 2012 election]  
In general, we are glad with the outcome of our first full-scale meeting, because previously we only had a chance to talk briefly on international fora. We had a good conversation with President Trump, and I hope that we start to understand each other better. And I’m grateful to Donald for it. Clearly there are some challenges left when we were not able to clear all the backlog, but I think that we made the first important step in this direction. [Entirely conditional]
 President Trump: Thank you very much. Thank you. I have just concluded a meeting with President Putin on a wide range of critical issues for both of our countries. We had direct, open, deeply productive dialogue. Went very well.  I also want to congratulate Russia and President Putin for having done such an excellent job in hosting the World Cup. It was really one of the best ever. And your team also did very well. It was a great job. [Excessive flattery] 
I’m here today to continue the proud tradition of bold American diplomacy. From the earliest days of our republic, American leaders have understood that diplomacy and engagement is preferable to conflict and hostility. A productive dialogue is not only good for the United States and good for Russia, but it is good for the world. The disagreements between our two countries are well-known and President Putin and I discussed them at length today. But if we’re going to solve many of the problems facing our world, then we’re going to have to find ways to cooperate in pursuit of shared interests. 
 Too often, in both recent past and long ago, we have seen the consequences when diplomacy is left on the table. We’ve also seen the benefits of cooperation. In the last century, our nations fought alongside one another in the Second World War. Even during the tensions of the Cold War, when the world looked much different than it does today, the United States and Russia were able to maintain a strong dialogue. But our relationship has never been worse than it is now. [Factually untrue ie, Cuban Missile Crisis – and to the extent that relations are strained, that is entirely on the Russians.  False equivalence] However, that changed as of about four hours ago. I really believe that. [Nothing – absolutely nothing – changes after one meeting. Farcical and unserious] 
Nothing would be easier politically than to refuse to meet, to refuse to engage, but that would not accomplish anything. As president, I cannot make decisions on foreign policy in a futile effort to appease partisan critics, or the media, or Democrats who want to do nothing but resist and obstruct. [The challenges with US relations are not partisan, they are national. An American president is the leader of ALL Americans when he is overseas. To seek out improved relations with Russia rooted in the pretext that domestic opposition is not based on serious concerns, delegitimizes American governance and foreign policy]
Constructive dialogue between the United States and Russia affords the opportunity to open new pathways toward peace and stability in our world. [That only works when you have a partner committed to resolving outstanding issues in advance of improved relations in the future. This is exactly the line that the most liberal Democrats would use during the Cold War to legitimize engagement with the Soviet Union] I would rather take a political risk in pursuit of peace than to risk peace in pursuit of politics. [You brought a partisan fight to the press conference for Putin to defend you]  As president, I will always put what is best for America and what is best for the American people. [Not by this performance]
 During today’s meeting, I addressed directly with President Putin the issue of Russian interference in our elections. I felt this was a message best delivered in person. Spent a great deal of time talking about it. And President Putin may very well want to address it, and very strongly, because he feels very strongly about it, and he has an interesting idea. [It is a laundry list item for you. Not a central concern. It is bunched together with other topics] We also discussed one of the most critical challenges facing humanity: nuclear proliferation. I provided an update on my meeting last month with Chairman Kim on the denuclearization of North Korea. And after today, I am very sure that President Putin and Russia want very much to end that problem, going to work with us. And I appreciate that commitment. [Putin didn’t say that] 
The president and I also discussed the scourge of radical Islamic terrorism. [Putin didn’t say that either. He’s interested in anti-Assad rebels whom the Kremlin considers terrorists] Both Russia and the United States has suffered horrific terrorist attacks, and we have agreed to maintain open communication between our security agencies to protect our citizens from this global menace. Last year, we told Russia about a planned attack in St. Petersburg, and they were able to stop it cold. They found them. They stopped them. There was no doubt about it. I appreciated President Putin’s phone call afterwards to thank me. 
I also emphasized the importance of placing pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear ambitions, and to stop its campaign of violence throughout the area, throughout the Middle East.[Clearly that hasn’t worked]  As we discussed at length, the crisis in Syria is a complex one.[You are still wondering what Resolution 338 is]  Cooperation between our two countries has the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives. I also made clear that the United States will not allow Iran to benefit from our successful campaign against ISIS. We have just about eradicated ISIS in the area. [Nothing about Syrian leadership, disposition and safety for rebels and continued Russian military presence in Syria]
 We also agreed that representatives from our national security councils will meet to follow-up on all of the issues we addressed today, and to continue the progress we have started right here in Helsinki. Today’s meeting is only the beginning of a longer process, but we have taken the first step toward a brighter future and one with a strong dialogue and a lot of thought. [Puffery]
Our expectations are grounded in realism, but our hopes are grounded in America’s desire for friendship, cooperation and peace. [At what price?] And I think I can speak on behalf of Russia, when I say that, also.[I wouldn’t assume that] President Putin, I want to thank you again for joining me for these important discussions and for advancing open dialogue between Russia and the United States.
  Our meeting carries on a long tradition of diplomacy between Russia, the United States, for the greater good of all. And this was a very constructive day, this was a very constructive few hours that we spent together. It’s in the interest of both of our countries to continue our conversation, and we have agreed to do so. I’m sure we’ll be meeting again in the future often, and hopefully we will solve every one of the problems that we discussed today. [We agreed to talk]
So again, President Putin, thank you very much.”

This is what happens when you put an emotive real estate promoter in the room with a seasoned KGB operative.

It isn’t pretty.