As a lifetime political junkie, this is truly my favorite time in the election cycle.
The money has been raised and spent. The speeches have been given. The mailers mailed, and the last ad buys set. Between now and Tuesday, control slips from the candidate and the advisors, to the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts, and then ultimately, in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, to the voters.
America’s campaign apparatus has spent more than $5 billion this year trying to get your vote. The course of the country over the next two years is at stake, with the mighty and powerful on the ballot. But in the end, it’s the average American who will ultimately determine what happens next. A citizenry that is still the master of its government.
There is something both simple and yet immensely powerful in this ritual. I stand in awe each time I watch the process unfold.
A word about President Trump.
Win or lose on Tuesday, Trump left it all on the field.
This time last year, the polls looked grim for Republicans. Trump was deeply unpopular, as were Republicans writ large. Add to that, the much discussed historical precedent that presidents always lose seats in the Congress in their first midterms. Trump’s predecessors have usually tried to minimize their role, staying presidential, while helping behind the scenes with fundraising. Like so much else in his presidency, Trump threw out that playbook.
2018 was always going to be a referendum on Trump, so instead of sitting on the side lines, Trump went all in.
He did the usual things, of course, like fundraisers, but he also took the campaign trail in a way that no previous president has, with a punishing schedule of rallies across the country. Trump’s activities are more akin to a general election campaign, where he’s on the ballot, than a midterm.
Trump’s political strategy, was realistic and solid. He focused on Red State senate and governors races with Democrat incumbents, which provided a friendly base geographically to broadcast national messages. The strategy gave GOP House members the flexibility to either ignore the president entirely, or the embrace and customize Trump’s message in the a way that maximized advantage their local races.
But Trump’s biggest contribution to 2018 was, by far, message management. Over the last 90 days, Trump has effectively sucked up all the oxygen in the room, forcing Democrats to react to him on his agenda.
Quick – what do the Democrats want to do if they win control in Congress?
“Raise taxes, increase regulation, create single-payer healthcare, open borders and abolish ICE.” Of course that’s Trump’s message, but it has effectively drowned out anything constructive the Democrats have tried to offer. When Democrats have been able to get attention, more often than not, they are making Trump’s point for him.
Whatever the actual result on Tuesday, Trump’s efforts have clearly impacted the calculations.
While a Blue Wave remains possible, Democrats have stopped talking about it. Last December, pundits were virtually giddy, estimating that Democrats could gain 70 seats in the House. Now, most analysts seem happy with Democrats simply winning the House.
A Democrat Senate majority was not beyond the realm of possible in February, but it seems more remote today, with Democrats focused on limiting Republican gains. This despite the fact that the Democrats have significantly outraised the GOP, and have recruited a solid class of candidates. These are middling expectations for that kind of investment, and credit for clipping Democrat wings belongs to Trump.
On November 7th, Americans will wake up to a new political reality.
Expect that if the House falls, by even the smallest of margins, Democrats and the media will immediately claim moral vindication. The greater the Democrat majority, the greater the vindication. If the Senate were to fall as well, the Democrats and the media will be truly insufferable. Gleeful talk of an impending 2020 disaster for the GOP will rife.
Less discussed are the repercussions of a Democrat loss. What if, against all odds (the GOP is given a 10% chance of keeping the House), Republicans maintain their House majority and grow their Senate majority? What if key governors races, which are infused with deep symbolism for Progressives, fall to the GOP as well? This isn’t the likely, but it is possible.
Trump supporters won’t be the least bit happy with Democrat victories, but they will live with it. What the Democrats will do if the shoe is on the other foot is another matter entirely. Look the election night and the days that followed 2016, for proof.
All of that is mercifully a few days ahead. For now, take a moment to savor the moment. The great engine of democracy is about to turn its wheels. It is an awe inspiring thing to see. This is the true power of the people.
And for the love of God, VOTE!