As we go to the polls today, one last bit of quick analysis that has not gotten any attention in the media.
In 2016, 8.3 million Americans voted for candidates other that Trump and Clinton, representing 7.2 percent of total voters. It was the largest 3rd party participation since the Perot phenomenon in the 90s. The total number of 3rd party voters was not inconsequential – it was almost three times Clinton’s popular vote victory margin.
Who are these voters and how many of them will be participating in the midterms today?
Below I break down the 3rd party vote from 2016 for states that have major races for governor, Senate or House today, further detailing the break out by party; Libertarian Party, Green Party and Other.
Note, there are nine states where the 3rd party margin was greater than the winning margin of Trump or Clinton.
If there are surprises tonight, the answers might be found here.
Get out and Vote!
| STATE | TOTAL 3RD PARTY | WINNING MARGIN LESS THAN 3RD PARTY TOTAL | LIBERTARIAN | GREEN | OTHER | |
| FL | 4.0% | (R+1.2) | 2.2 | .70 | 1.1 | |
| NV | 6.6% | (D+2.4) | 3.3 | — | 3.3 | |
| AZ | 7.3% | (R+3.5) | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| NC | 4.0% | (R+3.7) | 2.7 | .30 | 1.0 | |
| MI | 5.6% | (R+.20) | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| WI | 6.3% | (R+.80) | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | |
| MN | 8.6% | (D+1.5) | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.5 | |
| PA | 4.4% | (R+.71) | 2.4 | .80 | 1.2 | |
| NH | 6.7% | (D+.40) | 4.1 | .90 | 1.7 | |
| MO | 6.0% | 3.4 | .90 | 1.4 | ||
| MT | 9.0% | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||
| IN | 6.0% | 4.9 | .30 | .90 | ||
| WV | 6.0% | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | ||
| GA | 5.0% | 3 | — | 1.2 | ||
| OH | 5.3% | 3.1 | .80 | 1.3 | ||
| IA | 8.0% | 3.8 | .70 | 3.3 | ||
| CA | 7.1% | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |