Finally, the people have spoken.
While Democrats clearly have reason to be happy this morning, there must also be an aching feeling that they came up short.
A year ago, there was bold talk of a tsunami of blue washing over the House, with the Democrats taking as many as 40 or more seats. A wave of GOP Senate retirements opened up the tantalizing possibility that even in a year with a hard map, that Democrats could retake the Senate. There were 8 toss-up Senate races listed yesterday. Control was in the balance. And a particularly bright picture was found in promising gubernatorial gains. 12 races were listed as toss ups yesterday.
The reality of today clips the wings of those Democrat ambitions.
House of Representatives:
Democrats achieved their overriding goal for this cycle, winning control of the House. Nancy Pelosi – for now – will pick up the gavel in January. But this was no blow out election. Democrats needed to win 23 seats to reach 218 and gain control of the House According to Real Clear Politics at 7:18am EDT, Dems were at 219. With 21 races yet to be called, and looking at the raw vote totals, it appears that Democrats will gain a minimum of another six seats. We may not know the final total for several days, but if the gain is limited to six, the Democrat majority would be 225, one of the smallest in recent times, leaving virtually no margin of error for whomever the Democrats select as Speaker.
Moreover, there were an unusual number of very tight wins for the Democrats, decided by 2 points or less (VA-2, VA-7, FL-26 are examples). This is the raw material for GOP efforts in 2020.
Control is control, however, no matter the size of the majority, and the Trump administration should expect a blizzard of investigations to unfold next year. It is an open question whether Democrats, so implacably opposed to Trump will try to find common ground on issues such as infrastructure, prescription drugs, or even a limited immigration deal, if such action gives Trump credit.
The Democrats will need to consider the face they are projecting to the public. Maxine Waters is in line to become Chair of the Financial Services Committee. And deeply partisan Jerry Nadler – Bill Clinton’s biggest defender back during Impeachment, will take over Judiciary. These Chairs are not like the moderate Dems responsible for picking up seats across the nation that delivered the Democrat majority. The disconnect is real.
Senate:
A terrific story for the GOP. As of this morning, the Republicans have expanded their majority, gaining a net of +3 seats. Democrat incumbents McCaskill, Donnellly, and Heitkamp all fell. In one of the most consequential and closed races of the night, Rick Scott unseated Bill Nelson, in FL in a huge upset for the GOP. Scott’s gain was offset by incumbent Dean Heller’s loss in NV. Two races – MT and AZ remain undecided, but with the GOP currently leading in both, by very small margins. The final Senate majority will be somewhere between R+2-5.
There were two big drivers for this victory.
The first was the catalytic effect of the Kavanaugh hearings. McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp all voted against Kavanaugh. All lost. Tester, in MT, also voted against Kavanaugh, and is undecided. Joe Manchin in WV, the only Democrat to support Kavanaugh, won by 3 points in a state that Trump carried by more than 50 points. The Kavanaugh vote was the difference.
The second was President Trump. He picked the Senate as his battleground. He owned the fact that the election would be a referendum on him, and engaged as if it was a general election race. Trump was clearly a major factor in IN, MO, ND, FL. He kept Manchin’s margin low, and we have yet to see if John Tester falls.
Democrats can be buoyed by how competitive they made some very key races.
Ted Cruz had the scare of his life last night, barely squeaking by Beto O’Rouke, when polls predicted a 6 point win. Statewide in TX, Republicans have been put on notice. Outside of the governor’s race, most statewide seats were won by very tight margins. Texas is no longer crimson red.
The practical impact of GOP Senate control is two-fold. First, any frivolous efforts to impeach Trump will be dead on arrival in the Senate. Second, and more important, Trump gets to keep appointing and confirming judges. If there is a SCOTUS vacancy on the liberal side before 2020, Trump has the ability to lock a 6-3 conservative majority, that will be set for a generation.
Governors:
Not a pretty picture for the GOP; there’s no getting around that they lost seats. IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, and NV. In a truly tragic loss, Scott Walker lost his bid for a 3rd term by a point and half in WI. But strategically, the GOP won where it had to win. FL, OH, NH, AZ, and IA. These are key states to 2020 and beyond, and will have an outsized importance on redistricting. With the exception of KS, Dem pick ups were aligned with their blue state fundamentals. The win in Florida cannot be under-estimated. Governor-elect DeSantis should be sending gift baskets to thank Trump, in the FL governor’s race, Trump was the difference.
Predictions:
Overall, I didn’t do too bad. On the Rick & Scotty Show on KHVH Radio on Monday, Predicted Democrat House gains from +18-30. This morning it looks like Democrats are poised to take +32. We’ll have to wait for the full results to get the final number.
I predicted a net GOP pick up of +1-3 seats. Depending on how the two outstanding races are settled, the GOP will pick up +2-5.
On individual races, I correctly called ND, MO, WV, and NV. I was wrong on FL and IN. I had McSally winning in AZ, and Tester winning in MT. We’ll see.
Conclusion:
Republicans have nothing to be ashamed about this morning. This was not supposed to be a Republican year. There were a record number of GOP retirements from the House and Senate, and the GOP was heavily outraised by the Democrats nationally, and in key races. Democrats had a solid recruiting cycle, getting solid, center left candidates to run.
But a majority of +10 is not a wave. Ceding 2-5 Senate seats to the GOP is not a wave. Losing marque governor’s races in FL, OH, IA, AZ, and most likely in GA, is not a wave. Indeed, the Democrats threw everything but the kitchen sink at the GOP in these races, bringing in Oprah and President Obama, and they still lost. Progressive money flowed to Gillum, Abrams and Beto, and they could not win.
It will be a very different Washington in January.
But it could also have been so much worse.
The GOP lives to fight another day, and in crucial aspects – the judiciary – will continue to make progress over the next two years as we gear up for 2020.
Not bad. Not bad at all.